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Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities (Vote fraud analytics)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA ^ | 10/9/12 | Peter Klimek, Yuri Yegorov, Rudolf Hanel, and Stefan Thurner

Posted on 11/07/2020 10:17:35 AM PST by ifinnegan

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, and that each citizen’s vote should count equally. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large numbers of electoral districts and vote according to their preferences. The large number of samples implies statistical consequences for the polling results, which can be used to identify election irregularities. Using a suitable data representation, we find that vote distributions of elections with alleged fraud show a kurtosis substantially exceeding the kurtosis of normal elections, depending on the level of data aggregation. As an example, we show that reported irregularities in recent Russian elections are, indeed, well-explained by systematic ballot stuffing. We develop a parametric model quantifying the extent to which fraudulent mechanisms are present. We formulate a parametric test detecting these statistical properties in election results. Remarkably, this technique produces robust outcomes with respect to the resolution of the data and therefore, allows for cross-country comparisons.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: fraud; vfa; votefraudanalysis
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Kurtosis refers to how much a result deviates from expected bell curve shape.

Benford analysis has shown results for all candidates but Biden follow an expected distribution which is evidence of vote fraud.

I post this here as an FYI to all interested parties as a method to further determine vote fraud.

My guess is analyses of the state's where Biden vote has switch from well behind to barely ahead since after the polls were well closed would indicate fraud.

1 posted on 11/07/2020 10:17:35 AM PST by ifinnegan
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To: ifinnegan
My guess is analyses of the state's where Biden vote has switch from well behind to barely ahead since after the polls were well closed would indicate fraud.

Especially if other races and issues on the ballots did not see a corresponding change in numbers and outcomes.

2 posted on 11/07/2020 10:20:08 AM PST by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all.)
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To: ifinnegan

“I post this here as an FYI to all interested parties as a method to further determine vote fraud.”

Much appreciated!


3 posted on 11/07/2020 10:22:32 AM PST by littlehouse36
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To: Texas Eagle

Yes.

I’d like to see this and any other analysis done. The Trump camp should be able to find people to do it.

It would be useful in their court cases.

And useful for the historic record.


4 posted on 11/07/2020 10:22:44 AM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: All

In Wisconsin, Biden had over 100K votes more than the sum of all Dem House candidates.

In 2016, Hillary had about 2000 difference vs House Dems AND the Senate candidate that year, same diff.

Nobody stuck 100K pieces of paper in machines. Too big a conspiracy to keep quiet.

A good programmer could do this. And the calibration of the machines probably is done in a test mode the programmer could detect and avoid.

A few thousand ballots needs to be hand counted in each county. Fed into all the machines in NORMAL mode. Check results.


5 posted on 11/07/2020 10:31:01 AM PST by Owen
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To: ifinnegan

Here is a U.S. expert in vote fraud analytics.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/

Trump camp needs to use him or similar expert to analyze the votes as soon as possible.


6 posted on 11/07/2020 10:31:29 AM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: ifinnegan

This is the kind of evidence that could destroy the fake results of this election. Statistical impossibilities in multiple states could lead to runoffs for the election, if that’s even Constitutional.


7 posted on 11/07/2020 10:34:07 AM PST by MikeyB806
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To: Owen

Yes. The analytics can show these types of fraud took place without needing to know the mechanism.

What you say indicates it will likely be apparent.

These analytics have been developed to look at other countries and have been used.

They need to be applied here now.


8 posted on 11/07/2020 10:34:18 AM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: Owen

What if they did externally, via a flash drive or backdoor, is that a possibility? I’m asking because these huge dumps were done with GOP observers blocked.


9 posted on 11/07/2020 10:35:58 AM PST by LilFarmer
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To: ifinnegan
(The Dominion software -Is Nancy Pelosi a silent partner of the company? Soros?)

Dominion Software is used in 47 US states including ALL OF THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. The Dominion software “glitch” ONLY took votes from President Trump and Republicans.

Dominion is used in 30 different states.

10 posted on 11/07/2020 10:36:09 AM PST by yoe (President Trump works for We The People - not China as Biden has and will.)
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To: MikeyB806

“This is the kind of evidence that could destroy the fake results of this election. Statistical impossibilities in multiple states could lead to runoffs for the election, if that’s even Constitutional.”

Yes.

It’s hard to know what legally it means or what is the cure.

I don’t think re-running the vote is an answer.

Disqualifying precincts, wards etc... with obvious fraud wherein votes from those localities are not included in state totals as un certifiable is the solution to my mind.


11 posted on 11/07/2020 10:37:37 AM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: ifinnegan

Note the WI issues I just described . . . 100K more Biden votes than House Dem votes . . .

I checked Colorado and NH. They show no huge Biden vote advantage. Anyone saying hatred would lead voters to vote Biden and no one else on the ballot, well they hate as much in CO and NH as in WI.

I did not check every state. Maybe some others show it.

But it’s absurd to think 100K people voted for Biden and only for Biden and not any other Dem candidates. Never Trumpers can’t explain it because Trump’s numbers are very close to GOP House candidate totals. Not 100K less.


12 posted on 11/07/2020 10:41:47 AM PST by Owen
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To: LilFarmer

That sort of scenario requires too many people in on a conspiracy. Someone would talk.

I’m hypothesizing a very small conspiracy. A computer programmer or two and maybe a sales person arranging for machines to be spread among counties. Maybe 2 or 3 guys. Not 100.


13 posted on 11/07/2020 10:43:41 AM PST by Owen
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To: ifinnegan

bump


14 posted on 11/07/2020 10:44:44 AM PST by Albion Wilde ("When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice." --Donald Trump)
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To: ifinnegan
Useful?

Trump's ENTIRE case before any court hinges on statistical probability and MATH which does not lie.. Benford curve is an excellent indicator of that, among others..

Rudy Giuliani's focus on dead people voting ain't gonna cut it. Trump needs statistical probability experts who are CERTIFIED AS EXPERT WITNESSES IN COURT who can PROVE this election was a FRAUD and therefore certain states' results are either NULLIFIED or a special election redo is in order.

ANYONE who thinks Biden won this election fair and square has their head up their arse. Just look at the fact there was NO blue wave along with the results of the down-ballot races and the fact the Republicans HELD THE HOUSE AND EVEN THE SENATE. The math PROVES fraud occurred and that fact ALONE is enough to erase Biden's win even WITHOUT detailed examples of said fraud. Again, MATH DOES NOT LIE.

Some will tell me I'm wrong and OF COURSE you WANT to show specific instances and examples of fraud but again, things that occur in elections involving 100,000 or 200,000 votes that are STATISTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE will carry significant weight in a court of law.

Civil War is coming. The reckless media's calling of the race for Joe is DANGEROUSLY irresponsible. THERE WILL BE A LONG SPAN OF CELEBRATIONS FOR JOE but when the courts rule large numbers of votes be thrown out or a LEGITIMATE forensic audit of ballots occur, or a RE-DO ELECTION occurs with rules and procedures that strictly limit the possibility for fraud AND TRUMP IS ULTIMATELY SHOWN TO BE VICTORIOUS, the two sides will clash in the streets and it will devolve into a full-fledged Civil War.

Civil War brewing!

15 posted on 11/07/2020 10:46:13 AM PST by CivilWarBrewing (Get off my back for my usage of CAPS, especially you snowflake males! MAN UP!)
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To: ifinnegan

bump for later...


16 posted on 11/07/2020 10:48:00 AM PST by indthkr
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To: ifinnegan

Bookmarked under Fraud


17 posted on 11/07/2020 10:50:00 AM PST by goodnesswins (The issue is never the issue. The issue is always the revolution." -- Saul Alinksy)
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To: ifinnegan
Whether this instance of commentary is true ... so long as there is, somewhere, a meaningful if not perfect map of what happened and the resulting data ... which can be represented relationally or in whatever layer of complexity up you want to take that ... ... ... SQL is beautiful ... and an anomalous pattern SHOULD be detectable.

I always thought, leading up to the election, the dems would know they were going to lose and hence 'nuke the stadium' before or the day of the event ... so no meaningful result could ... well ... result.

What they did instead was cut the video of the game where no one was in the stands, kick the other team out of the stadium, and when the video came back the score had reversed. If no one was in the stands to see it, and they've torched the video, then the above doesn't hold. You need data in the first place if you're going to analyze it.

I imagine if there is clear analytical data analysis showing of a reliable dataset that shows an anomaly, the courts will judge that to be evidence. But if there is no dataset that can be queried, will the courts rule that the game can not be verified, and hence the result is invalid?

I don't know. I guess we'll see.

18 posted on 11/07/2020 10:53:11 AM PST by tinyowl (A is A)
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To: Owen

Not really. You think the dolts think anything of it if a Dominion worker came in to “fix” the machine? Or backdoor, it only takes a few IT personnel to do that, and would not even be noticeable on the counter side.

I mean, it happened today, in Gwinnett County:

A total of 535 absentee by mail ballots that required a signature cure and three military/overseas ballots will be counted tomorrow (Sat.) after Dominion technicians make the system adjustments needed to complete the count.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3901227/posts?page=9923#9923

And that was with all eyes on them. What did they do when GOP was absent?

As for witnesses, I read there are 70 witnesses to testify, and I don’t even know if that includes the USPS workers who say they are coming out on the record.


19 posted on 11/07/2020 11:02:03 AM PST by LilFarmer
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To: LilFarmer

Fvking maddening that a simple flash drive can ultimately add zeros,algorithm via malware eliminating every n’th Trump vote and pump up Biden in every so called “swing” state (as we slept!!!). I know the corrupt poll worker can only make/destroy so many fraud votes/ballots.


20 posted on 11/07/2020 11:02:41 AM PST by shanover (...To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them.-S.Adams)
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