[LilFarmer]

I did some number crunching. I think it will come down to the wire in GA. Y’all please check my math:

Forsyth: 7000 outstanding
67% Trump - 4690
Biden - 2310

Fulton: 70,000 outstanding
80% (the whole county is lower but the outstanding votes are in heavy dem areas)
Biden - 56,000
Trump - 14,000

Dekalb: 54,000
80% Biden - 43,200
Trump - 10,800

Houston: 20,000
62% Trump - 12,400
Biden - 7,600

Chatham: 15,000
77% Biden - 11,550
Trump - 3450

Gwinnett: 1000
70% Biden - 700
Trump - 300

Totals:
Trump: +45640
Biden: +121,360

Biden up 75,720
Trump’s current lead at sos website: 99,927

Leaving Trump a lead of 24,207, assuming the other ballots out there go 50/50

[LilFarmer]

*I am basing my percentages on the voting trends in these counties this election.

[bort]

I will defer to your expertise. I am not a numbers cruncher. Will the result be even better for Biden b/c they are mail ins?

[NittanyLion]

Yeah that’s super close, especially if these are VBM ballots and tilt more heavily Dem. if you get beyond 85% in the big Dem counties and the Trump counties underperform by 10% v your benchmark, we’re done.

[Jane Long]

Pinging Laz to your GA Cty counts.

[trackman]

I just did the math myself for EVERY county in GA. If voting patterns hold true to what they have been for each county, Trump wins by roughly 21,600 votes. I don’t know if the remaining votes are mail-in or in-person. I hope it’s the latter.

[Eccl 10:2]

Excellent analysis. Can you please update this regularly? I would do it, but I don’t know from where you getting your data.

Many thanks.

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

Chatham: 15,000
77% Biden - 11,550
Trump - 3450

****This is hard to believe, this is Savannah, Georgia.