Posted on 11/03/2020 5:45:18 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 673,828
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 558,412
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 115,416
Tried to buy more FL in my wife’s PredictIT account.
Got error message: “We have reached the maximum number of traders on this contract.”
Never saw that before.
Too bad, that was going to be more easy money.
What’s PredictIT now saying about the horserace?
“Per Biden campaign estimates Trump needs:
-59% of E-Day vote in PENNSYLVANIA to win.
-56% of E-Day vote in FLORIDA to win.
-52% of E-Day vote in OHIO to win.
-49% of E-Day vote in Texas to win.”
Trump can do that. Thats half to slightly more than half.
Trump 1 state away from winning.
BUT AZ is close to 50/50. Right now Trump at .52
NC has been quiet today. That’s an important one. Not much anecdotal out there.
In the Senate, a D+3 pickup.
But I’m holding out hope for Collins and Tillis.
McSally, have a bad feeling about that. But maybe Trump helps to save her.
Other race is GA Special. Haven’t paid much attention to it. It might go to a runoff?
+83,935
I think Tillis will win in NC. Cunningham has been crashing and burning down the stretch.
I’m less sure about McSally, she will need Trump to drag her over the finish line.
Rolling along. Not much sign of slowing. We should see a lunchtime boost also. And as byecomey said, this is without a lot of key counties.
You think NM is worth a few bucks?
GA going gangbusters. I don’t know any specifics.
Erick Erickson
@EWErickson
1h
Exurban and rural Georgia voters are turning out in 2020 like they did for Kemp in 2018. It’s a good sign for the President and David Perdue in Georgia.
Speedy, if “large” numbers of Indy’s break against us, our goose is cooked.
we will know early because you can compare the DEM/REP ratio against the early returns
example
dems have 40,000 votes in county X
Republican have 50,000
dems have 44% or 4/9
RPE have 56% of 5/9
This can change 3 ways
a) more indies break one way or another
b) more Reps are voting for Biden then Dems for Trumps
C) more DEms vote for Trump then Reps vote for Biden
keep in mind this excludes 3rd party so you have to factor those out in the final results
if the early returns show Trump 56% Biden 44% a, b and c cancel each other out
if early returns show Trump 52% and Biden 48% in county X Biden is picking up votes from A and/or B
I heard a weird Cunningham ad this morning, called Tillis a RINO, didn’t support the wall. Then it ends saying vote for Cunningham. WTF.
Trump has a shot at NM. Not my typical bet.
Your call.
is it 1% for auto recount to kick in in Fla ???
In most states it’s .5%
I think 0.5 in FL
+92.6K now
Bought 200 shares of No Joe just for kicks. Would pay $182 on $26.
+92.6K now
I think that was the full hour of updates, hard to figure out because not 20 min consistent updates today
if true Reps picked up net 30K in the past hour
I suspect that will slow 1-3pm because Reps slacked off during early voting around then and DEMS get mail in dumps
then pick up again 3-7
—
plus the panhandle only 7-8 eastern
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.