PA Gov. Wolf said there are still over 1 million mail-in ballots to be counted 3 hours ago. Trump’s lead is about 600,000 now. If Biden gets 80% of a million votes, that brings the election to a tie. Unfortunately that’s the ratio Fox or someone else said Biden had gotten of the PA mail-in votes so far. So it’s just too close to call at this point.
NYT says that only 28% of PA counties report the totals for absentee ballots, which I assume includes all mail-in ballots. The total reported is only 785K, and Biden wins a big percentage of those. But we don’t know the location of those votes. So there’s really no way to predict how the mail-in votes will play out. Trump said something like “it’s almost impossible for Biden to catch up” give the current size of Trump’s lead. Looks like the mail-in ballots will bring Trump’s lead down but Biden has to get 60% of those votes to catch up. It just depends if those remaining mail-in ballots are evenly spread out around PA or are they mostly from the Philly and Pittsburgh urban areas.