He needs 650k of expected 1m votes. We’ll see if there are even 1m votes out there.
The NBC website estimates that 78% of presidential votes in Arizona has counted. So 22% or (22/78)(2.5 million) = 705,000 presidential votes haven’t been counted. The Arizona Gop chairperson estimates Donald Trump to get 66% of the election day votes. So Trump should get around 470,000 more votes and Biden gets 235,000 votes. I estimate Trump will end up with 1.147 + 0.47 = 1.617 million votes and Biden ends up with 1.322 + 0.235 = 1.557 million votes. That’s awfully close race.