Considering 218k ballots were cast in M-D on election day 2016, I would expect at least 375k R turnout at worst.
From Bill Stepien - Trump campaign manager:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1323329137734397954.html
So there has been a lot of bluster, from pollsters and pundits, about what we should expect tomorrow.
President Trump has the momentum in this race and the math available to him to win on Election Day.
President Trump is ahead of where he was in 2016, by a very key measure.
It’s the measure that actually matters. Votes cast, and votes left to be cast.
You’ve been seeing reports of Democrats being nervous, and well, they should be.
Let’s start in Ohio, where Joe Biden is wasting a few hours today.
Weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +10, today it’s D +0.6.
Going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5.
Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.
Pres. Trump rallied in North Carolina this morning.
Democrats jumped out to a D +32 advantage during AB only voting. Today it’s D +5.8.
Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +9.7.
Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.
Pres. Trump and Biden are then heading to Pennsylvania.
Dems have banked A TON of high propensity voters. We have millions of voters left.
Pres. Trump’s E Day margin needs to be significant and we project an Election Day votes cast margin of over a million for Pres. Trump.
Don Jr. is in AZ today to etch the state into our win column.
Weeks ago the makeup of the electorate was D +11.9, today it’s D +1.2. Reminder: going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5.
Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 150k net votes.
What about Florida?
Democrats jumped out to a D +18.8 advantage during AB-only voting. Today it’s D +1.
Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +1.4.
President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 500k net votes.
This I can live with. After that, barring significant defections, Trump will do significantly better in Dade this time compared to 2016.