Posted on 11/01/2020 6:14:43 AM PST by Coop
Here’s the original thread. It unfortunately did not stimulate discussion as I had hoped, but c’est la vie on FR. Reminder: The GOP needs a net gain of only 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
There are 30 Dem House representatives in districts Trump won. I keep hearing that the Dems are not only going to hold the House, but expand their majority. I find that hard to believe based on the below numbers.
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
Since originally publishing that thread, I have found quite a bit of encouraging news in GOP candidates actually outraising their incumbent Dem counterparts. Polls, which I do not care for, actually show competitive races and GOP leads in quite a few of my list of 30. Plus it appears the GOP is in good shape to hold CA-50 (Duncan Hunter’s old seat) and in decent shape to hold Don Bacon’s NE-02 seat, as well as one of the three Clinton won seats (the other two are up for grabs). I emboldened the seats I am especially bullish about flipping (or holding, in the case of GOP Rep. Fitzpatrick), based on polling, fundraising, the national GOP turnout numbers I’m seeing, and the presumed RNC/Trump get-out-the-vote efforts through election day. Just because I did not embolden a name doesn’t mean I don’t think they can win. It just means they’re either not in a swing state and/or I haven’t seen much evidence pointing to a Republican victory. A few (such as IL-17, IA-03, NY-22 or GA-06) I think could go either way. I almost chose MN-07, but Dem Colin Peterson has defied his district’s lean for so long, and he voted no on impeachment. So kept MN-07 as up for grabs. I am not nearly as informed on national House races as several folks on this forum, so I invite additional info and opposing opinions. But, please, be gentle.
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| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
| GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
| IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
| IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
| IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
| IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
| IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
| ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
| MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
| MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
| MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
| MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
| NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | ”Big Dan” Rodimer | |
| NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
| NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
| NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
| NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
| NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
| NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
| NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
| NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
| OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
| PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
| PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
| SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
| UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
| VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
| VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
| WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* | |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
| PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
| TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* | |
I have not been impressed at all with the NRCC. Its home page is not user friendly, and the little bit of news on races seems always to be from the Dem perspective. I understand the egregious media bias, but the NRCC can still set its own agenda. However, the Trump campaign hasn’t made a lot of noise about Republicans recapturing the House. Perhaps they truly don’t believe it’s possible, but based on the numbers above I think it’s do-able. However, in order of likelihood it’s 1) Trump wins a second term, 2) the GOP holds the Senate, and 3) the GOP flips the House.
Hey coop-I did the same kind of post a month ago. 17 winnable/take back seats over 17 days. I had to include the rats countering pretty boy vets/gals, something we don’t do enough of. Those things matter. Discussion was less than moderate. Another factor is the history of Republican stupidity in the selection of candidates. We’ll win big but the skeptic in me suggests we will blow more than a few.
Wow. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen good weather across the entire nation like that!
Hearing from Baris on selected states. Is in AZ breaking Trump, not overwhelmingly. But pockets, such as Libertarians were breaking strongly Trump.
There is an outside chance that Nancy Mace could unseat SC1 Democrat Joe Cunningham. Polls show everything from a slight Mace lead to Cunningham cruising to re-election. With the massive early voting, polls seem to be at best useless in 2020. While Mace seems to be Nikki Haley clone, a pickup is a pickup in denying Pelosi the speakership
We certainly will get back Garcia (again, he flipped it last year) and Kim. Likely to get two more.
If we can get back the other two, this would almost certainly mean we get the House.
Jeep, I don’t think so. This is because we DON’T HAVE A CANDIDATE there who can flip these.
At the House level it’s of course about district partisan makeup, but a good candidate can overcome. This has been my whole issue with “retaking the House” this cycle. We don’t have the JC Watses, Steve Largents, JD Hayworths, or later, the Dan Crenshaws who are more than just a politician.
Plus we in AZ don’t have the gas/oil/energy issues to help our non-descript candidates. Even though he would have been a kook and easy to attack, I thought if we could have gotten Steven Seagall to run for AZ 9 he could have won it.
You're correct. I had included Amash in my original post, but forgot about the... gentleman this time around. Trump won his district, MI-03, by over 9 points in 2016. Republican Peter Meijer is in very good shape to take this seat back from the Democrats/Libertarians.
I have intentionally been ignoring the Democrat opponents in most cases. They get enough free press as it is.
Outside? I disagree. Mace is featured above, and while not a guarantee I think she’s in good shape.
I’m in AZ-3. Have entrenched swamp rat Raúl Grijalva running against Daniel Wood. We don’t watch local channels so haven’t seen any ads for Daniel. I’ve heard nothing about the state of the race which probably means another term for Raúl.
Exactly. The GOP is silent. Something good could be happening.
I met Dave Giles in 9th. He is actually an engineer, gun dealer, pro life Christian, etc. Very nice guy. Campaigning very hard, putting a lot of his money in the race. He is The guy to vote for!
I am not sure if he will win, but I am sure he has MY vote.
Oh Grijalva - the guy who defended himself from the charges of sexual harassment by telling that he is just a drunkard!
Seriously.
He is always drunk!
But he is on the Biden list, candidate for interior secretary or EPA. Incredible!
Yet our ground game is said to be a record breaking organization in terms of numbers.
Allowing for the fact that the House congressional committee is different from the Trump reelection organization and allowing for the fact that most of our emphasis no doubt has gone into battleground states, this still seems strange. One would expect the whole organization to be built around precincts, districts, counties then states.
I’m in AZ-3. Have entrenched swamp rat Raúl Grijalva running against Daniel Wood. We don’t watch local channels so haven’t seen any ads for Daniel. I’ve heard nothing about the state of the race which probably means another term for Raúl.
I’m in AZ-4 where Paul Gosar will get 70% of the vote. I heard him speak yesterday in Prescott Valley and had nothing but praise for Wood. Gosar said Wood is working hard getting signs out while Raul is doing nothing.
Have you been following https://twitter.com/FloridaDude297
He has been posting polls by the House & Senate race. Each one 500 sample. His numbers are trending encouragingly for taking the house and expanding the Senate.
Today’s most encouraging:
Virginia Trump 49%, Biden 47%.
Wisconsin 3 Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Ron Kind 47%, Republican Challenger Derrick Van Orden 47%.
Arizona 1 Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Tom O’Halleran 46%, Republican Challenger Tiffany Shedd 48%.
Arizona 2 Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick 45%, Republican Challenger Brandon Martin 48%.
Nevada 4 Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Steven Horsford 46%, Republican Challenger Jim Marchant 46%.
Nevada 3 Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Susie Lee 44%, Republican Challenger Daniel Rodimer 48%.
Iowa 2 Congressional District. Republican Challenger Mariannette Miller-Meeks 49%, Democrat Challenger Rita Hart 47%.
Michigan Genesee County. [Flint, Michigan] Trump 51%, Biden 44%. (In 2016, Hillary 52%, Trump 43%)
Michigan 11 Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Haley Stevens 45%, Republican Challenger Eric Esshaki 49%.
New Hampshire US Senate Race. Democrat Incumbent Jeanne Shaheen 46%, Republican Challenger Corky Messner 48%.
Arizona US Senate Race. Republican Incumbent Martha McSally 50%, Democrat Challenger Mark Kelly 44%.
North Carolina US Senate Race. Republican Incumbent Thom Tillis 52%, Democrat Challenger Cal Cunningham 40%.
Iowa US Senate Race. Republican Incumbent Joni Ernst 55%, Democrat Challenger Theresa Greenfield 40%.
Michigan US Senate Race. Democrat Incumbent Gary Peters 47%, Republican Challenger John James 49%.
NATIONAL POLL. (5,000 Registered Voters Called Nationwide). Trump 51.4%, Biden 43.1%.
Wisconsin Trump 50%, Biden 45%.
Georgia Trump 55%, Biden 41%.
Pennsylvania Trump 52%, Biden 45%
Arizona Trump 49%, Biden 45%.
Florida Trump 51%, Biden 42%.
North Carolina. Trump 52%, Biden 44%.
Nevada Trump 49%, Biden 44%.
Iowa Trump 54%, Biden 41%.
Michigan Trump 50%, Biden 46%.
Florida 13 Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Charlie Crist 46%, Republican Challenger Anna Luna 48%.
FLORIDA DUDE POLL. We project Republicans capturing the House. Republicans need to win 20 seats. Republicans will win 22 seats outright and with 37 Democrat Incumbent toss up races will probably take a total of 45 seats.
Bellweather Trumbull County, Ohio. Trump 56%, Biden 39%.
True. I think POTUS will put a lot of pressure on those moderates to grow a pair and fall in line. POTUS will not have to play nice, and could play hardball on primaries for those who won't change.
I sure hope so!
Daniel got our 2 votes. I remember a young woman almost took out Raúl a few cycles back. 2014? I think she was a Raytheon engineer.
Wow! Very comprehensive. Will review. Thanks.
Thanks. But the moderators went out of their way to remove it from front page news, so how many will actually see this thread? Apparently every flippin' Trump rally thread, with pictures of trains and talk about food & beverage choices, qualifies as front page. But not district/candidate data that could potentially fire Nancy Pelosi.
And don't misunderstand me, I really enjoy the banter on theTrump rally threads. But there is a serious double standard here.
Well, I just finished up a few hours (the last half in a light rain) doing literature drops and canvassing neighborhoods with a Republican (former police officer) running for CT state senate. I have tried to do my part and taken nothing for granted. Hopefully I, along with every freedom-loving American, will be rewarded with a strong Republican victory across the board in about two days. If not, it wasn't because I sat on my couch.
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