“National GE, Among those who plan to cast their ballot on #ElectionDay:
Trump 69% (+42)
Biden 27%
@YouGovAmerica/@CBSNewsPoll, LV, 10/26-30”
VA Day coming soon.
Trump needs better turnout in Orange, Seminole, Duval, and St. Johns. I am concerned all his gains in Miami-Dade will be wiped out in the Orlando/Jacksonville suburbs. It seems whether because of changing demographics or suburban uneasiness there is some resistance in Orlando and Jacksonville suburbs. Seminole County and St. Johns County are Trump’s 2 worst counties in the entire state. Even in in-person early voting, Trump is barely getting a 2-3% advantage while other Dem Strongholds have Trump at least a 10% advantage.
That has me concerned. There’s also general under performance in senior heavy southwest florida counties like Collier, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee. All 2-4% below 2016 although unlike Seminole, St.Johns, Republicans are doing gangbusters in IPEV with leads up to 20% or more. Sarasota is very impressive IPEV.
Also, a lot of the outperformance in rurals is yellow dog democrats changing their registration to Republican to vote in primaries. Trump was winning these counties anyway 70-30. Maybe there is room to boost them to 80-20 but at some point the rurals are maxed out.
I still think wins but turnout Tuesday is everything. It could still go the wrong way in Florida if Republicans don’t turnout. Hopefully, the Democrat narrative that suburban women and seniors moving to Biden is wrong. The early voting data does concern me a little.