Florida Early Vote update, 11/01/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 11/01/2020 | self

[wareagle7295]

OK, so by looking at post 1 of this whole thread, between Dems and Reps that is already at 7M or so. If it is a similar number, it seems as though there would not be but around 1M votes (or less) on election day. Is that correct?

[wareagle7295]

I’m sorry, on my prior posts I meant if it is a similar number for INDs that have already voted..

[Ravi]

75% turnout yields 10.8 million.
78% turnout yields 11.25 million.Somewhere between there.

[wareagle7295]

OK someone was posting a CBS/YouGov poll earlier that said if you are voting on election day who are you voting for and it was like 70 Trump/30 Biden. I know how we all feel about polls, but it does seem to indicate that if the Republicans get out there Tuesday the way I know they will, Florida and quite a few other states will be a blow out.

[dfwgator]

It’s Going to be a Red Tuesday!

[Ravi]

🤞

[byecomey]

Not since the Dan Rather fiasco in 2004 has FR made such an impact. Just want to say love y’all.

[LS]

Actually, yeah, we did a pretty good job.

[Coop]

Hat tip to you, sir. You’re up for the MVP award this cycle.

[SpeedyInTexas]

D VBM return rate is 78.5%. Was 77.7% this morning. A weak finish. Could go up slightly with Miami/Sarasota. But I’m going to work on my prediction tonight and use 78.5%.

I think overall Ds should be disappointed in that. There were times they were heading towards 84-86%. Day late and a dollar short...

I’m going to assume D overall turnout rate is 78.5% and R overall turnout rate is 81.2%

We can track Election Day with JoeIsDone and see how both parties are trending in turnout vs these benchmarks.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Love you Man!

[TallahasseeConservative]

Thanks to both of y’all. You’ve been a life line...

[Ravi]

I will take the under on that 78.5%.

Checked Sarasota. Only 370 ballots returned from Dems and about 340 from Reps. Good day for Reps there with IPEV.

[plushaye]

Meanwhile, PA:

“Washington Post reporting dems worried about their prospects in PA.”

https://twitter.com/zeibars/status/1322870168259751938

[Ravi]

Honestly your map is the glue that binds everything together. Once those numbers start jumping on Tuesday, I will post screenshots near and far. I cannot wait. Posting a screenshot of a single county like I was doing in 2016 seems rather passe and ineffectual.

[plushaye]

Historical tidbit of interest, posted by The Election Wizard: "No incumbent has lost when receiving 75% or more of their party’s primary vote. Less than 75%, and the the incumbent enters the danger zone." 🚫 GWH Bush 73% 🚫 Carter 51% 🚫 Ford 53% 🚫 Hoover 36% 🚫 Taft 35% ✅ Trump 94% Primaries predicted the winner 18/18 times.

[KC_Conspirator]

A 5k day for Trolls to the Polls? Lame.

[Ravi]

https://www.theledger.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/01/early-voting-surge-republicans-setting-stage-election-day-showdown-florida/6112959002/

[Rumierules]

What do you think TO will be for NPAs?

That’s the number we’d use to run hypotheticals, right?

52/48 for Trump
51/49 for Trump
52/48 for Biden
51/49 for Biden
Etc

[texas booster]

i have noticed that FL polls discuss the “4/4 voter”.

A Goog search provides no useful information..

Why do pollsters use the 4/4 designation in Florida?

What does it mean?

And why is it not used in other states?

A link to a previous FR answer would also be appreciated.