Posted on 11/01/2020 5:51:10 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Oh wait...it might take a while for NH to be declared, like last time. Anyway, if it comes in red, I will be happy.
byecomey - joeisdone.
@DataRepublican
Hotel room isn’t ready and I have dinner reservations. I’m afraid the updates will take a few more hours to resume. But I’ve heard they’re good. Net D gain but only a few thousand via VBM.
https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/1323025330391535616
That would be something. Colorado. I hope so too.
Again amusing to watch the liberals on Twitter start doing the math about FL turnout. Someone posted that anywhere from 8 to 10% of FL DEMs plan to vote election day depending on the poll. With their current turnout of 65.3%, someone said the DEM turnout would be anywhere from 74 to 76%. The comments after - denial, acceptance, anger, disbelief...
Dems and math. Unlikely combination.
Ravi’s right, looks like we’re holding our own on what was billed as a big D day.
Total Rs (EV+VBM) = 59,276
Total Ds (EV+VBM) = 64,921
Giving the Ds a gain of 5,645 (but this does not include M-D) - they’ll probably get another 2K there.
D overall lead is 99K.
Also, while the last week has averaged 400K total ballots per day, we’re only at 176K today. I think Sold_My_Soul_To_The_Devil was a bust for them.
And don’t forget Sarasota. I like to peek at those numbers every evening - blunts Dade pretty well. Sarasota closes down at 6:30 so should have some numbers in about an hour. If it performs like Manatee did today, then we should have a really good number out of there.
Ha! To be fair, some of the less crazy ones seemed to accept that this might be the high water mark - they did lean on the polls showing the higher election day turnout (11%) in FL.
I’d imagine they are beginning to see the picture- numbers will always sober up partisans on both sides!
Went and protested Jill before our Trump vehicle parade. Not impressed with their turnout...
6:08 update
day
IPEV R+579 MAIL D+9680
NET D+9680
OVERALL D+ 101210
“Of course Ralston thinks Biden takes NV. Waiting for his final prediction.
In 2016 he predicted a Clinton 6 point win. Was 2.6.
I think he predicts a much smaller win this time.
I predict, he predicts 3 point Biden win.”
I have been bested by Ralston a couple of times, once on a congressional race (made me look like a fool).
But, and this is a big butt, his analysis projects from 2016 results and assumes there will be essentially zero crossovers. I can’t imagine there won’t be Ds to Rs at a higher rate than Rs to Ds because the lockdown decimated the gaming/convention industry. If what’s left of the union workers in lark County have ANY sense (big IF), they will know Biden means another year of job crushing lockdown.
It was a 2.7% shortfall in 2016. I’m guessing 2020 is .5% one way or the other.
You know 74 to 76% would be a disaster - for them.
CORRECTION D NET +NET D +91101
might loose more IPEV votes
I think Orange county is the only county opened 7-8 this evening
“PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 1%
InsiderAdvantage/@theamgreatness (R), LV, 10/30-31
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/11/PA-POll-Oct-31st-final-poll-a1-.pdf";
What’s the correction based on?
What’s the correction based on?
that was a typo .. doubled up a 1
9101 is the DEMS daily lead (not 9680)
So how many votes are left out there? What is the expected total vote? In 2016 it was 9,420,039.
I’m guessing 10.8 million is the total for Florida.
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