Wow. Talk about junk science.
From the article:
“After the date of the rally, the growth in coronavirus infections in counties that had welcomed Trump diverged notably from the growth in counties that didn’t, the researchers found.
The gaps varied widely from rally to rally. But no reading of the statistical findings support the conclusion that hosting a rally had no effect in driving up coronavirus cases.
Two rallies in Wisconsin — one in Oshkosh on Aug. 17 and another in Mosinee on Sept. 17 — stood out in particular relief. Before each rally, the positivity rate of coronavirus tests in each county was essentially flat. But immediately after the rallies, the “positivity rates rose sharply and quickly” and continued rising for at least several weeks, the researchers reported.
But lots of factors might have explained such differences. Maybe the counties that experienced an increase in cases — that is, the ones that hosted rallies — simply had more people living in closer proximity to one another, helping the virus to spread. Residents might have had higher rates of underlying medical conditions that made them more susceptible to the virus if exposed. Perhaps public health strictures, such as mask mandates or temporary closures of bars and restaurants, were more lax.”
“After the date of the rally, the growth in coronavirus infections in counties that had welcomed Trump diverged notably from the growth in counties that didn’t, the researchers found.”
Let me give an example. I went to a Trump rally in Tucson. Have cases risen since then? Yes. Risen as much is surrounding counties? No. So Trump’s rally was the cause?
Well, Pima county has always had more problems with COVID than the surrounding RURAL counties. And the 10,000 people at the rally are a pretty small part of the 1,000,000 population. And Pima County infections were rising BEFORE the rally at the same rate they did AFTER the rally.
But if you compare an urban population with an established rise in cases with a rural county nearby which had had very few cases at all....it will look bad in the urban county. But if you compared the before and after rises in cases, you’d find no change. Nor would you expect to given the rally involved 10,000 people in open air, lots of sunshine, while embedded in a county of 1,000,000 people - including nursing homes, a university, an Interstate, hotels, etc.
BTW - the over 60 crowd I know who went to the rally? No masks, no infections.
“After the date of the rally, the growth in coronavirus infections in counties that had welcomed Trump diverged notably from the growth in counties that didn’t, the researchers found.