[janetjanet998]

is youR site down?

no updates for 45 mins (stuck on 549603 R lead IPEV)

[SpeedyInTexas]

Some thoughts as we enter the home stretch and a question for byecomey.


Election Eve

Monday morning, everyone please post your Florida predictions. Don't be shy. If you are dead right, we won't hold it against you.

I've had my prediction formula in mind for 1 month. It is
(81.2% * Registered Rs) MINUS
(D VBM return rate on Election Eve * Registered Ds) PLUS
58k (number I think Trump wins Indys by).

Florida Man, we need your prediction also. We also thank you for all the work you have done in Miami.


Election Day

As far I as know, JoeIsDone should work on Election Day just as it is working today. ByeComey, any reason to think otherwise?

If it works as I think it should, we can continue to follow voting in Florida. We can see when Rs pass Ds in voting. We should come up with an estimate for Miami/Sarasota that we mentally add to the Dem lead on Election Day morning.

Ravi, do you want to volunteer to come up with that number?

On Election Day, we can see where D and R turnout is heading. If Rs exceed 81.2% or Ds falling short of our estimated turnout for them, Trump in good shape. If R turnout falls from 81.2%, obviously not good.

We can know how Florida is looking when the polls close with JoeIsDone before the entire country.

People still in line when voting ends, can generally still vote, so JoeIsDone could show vote updates continuing.

Any other thoughts for Election Eve and Election Day?

[janetjanet998]

OK BACK UP

assuming last update was “2:08”

has to do average the last hour but DEMS continue crushing it on mail ins compared to the last couple of days eating into the REPS +net hour update lead

and have +6621 lead so far for mail ins

Reps up 26,208 in IPEV

+19,587 net

last 3 updates (all the same because they are averages over the past hour)

+1405 -556 = +849
+1405 -556 = +849
+1405 -556 = =849

because of strong D mail ins today
+40K is now out of reach

and +35 is slipping if their strong mail in continue

+33 +/- 2 looking most likely

[byecomey]

Yeah, kid pulled the plug. It’s running again. It now has Polk numbers too.