Overall he remains near top in Rasmussen polling long-term results.
Obama at 49% on same day during 2012 re-election.
I Don’t Make Predictions, But...
Townhall ^ | 10/30/2020 | Larry O’Connor
First, let’s understand what we are looking to achieve this Tuesday. This is all about 270 electoral college votes, nothing else. You know that. You’re smart. You don’t read Vox. But, I just wanted to reiterate... the national popular vote is literally meaningless, and by extension, national popular opinion polls that reflect the national presidential preference is absolutely meaningless. So ignore it.
We are about to engage in 51 elections—one in each state and the District of Columbia. The winner of those elections will determine the distribution of electors for the electoral college. The candidate who achieves 270 electoral votes will be president for the next four years.
Excerpt:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3899813/posts
the head-to-head moved in favor of Biden. He now leads 49-46.
Hard to understand how his approval is 51% but only 46% are voting for him.
Enough BS.
Will Orange-Man-BAD! win or not?
Tell us or give it [the polling effort and media promotion] up.
Trump is sounding less confident in his recent tweets.
Hopefully it’s just a GOTV strategy.
Based on most recent Rasmussen Polls Trump is ahead in FL, NC, MI and AZ.
This is not your father’s Rasmussen, or even your older brother’s Rasmussen. Scott R. sold it and is now a different entity. I don’t expect them to repeat past performances, in part because their mode of polling no longer works very well. Not Rasmussen’s fault, but they haven’t adjusted.
These threads during this phase of an election look the same election after election. People who haven’t been paying attention flock to reports of polls and go straight the the top line number and wonder why it doesn’t match Real Clear Politics Average or Fibber McGee’s Handy Dandy Poll Company. You can’t make a comparison, different methodolgy, modes, agendas, and diligence. Most polls are worthless except for their clients who are attempting to influence the election.
You need to learn how to discard the bad polls. Start with Real Clear Politics average. They may mean well, but they give you an average that includes useless polls, not useful.
Throw out anything from Nate Silver (538 and Sienna) and others of his ilk.
So what’s left:
Top tier are Susquehanna, Trafalger, and Big Data (People’s Pundit).
Second tier are Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP, and probably a few others who focus on state level polls and don’t do national polls.
Finally, ignore the polls and look at the behavior of the two campaigns. Right now, the Trump campaign are behaving like winners and are going after states that they did not win last time. They know that the election will be decided in Pennsylvania and are working hard to keep it despite the best efforts of the Supreme Court.
The Biden Campaign are behaving like losers with their candidate in the bunker, avoiding, with media help, credible evidence of massive corruption and leading forlorn hope efforts to convince voters in states that will go for Trump. They aren’t getting their base to the polls and are now relying on their massive assault with TV ads. Good luck with that.
The guy, Rasmussen, was on Lou Dobbs predicting a Biden win!
He’s an @$$