I think making any estimates based solely on early voting #’s against other years is a mistake.
COVID has changed how people think about voting. I voted early, and I’ve never done that before.
I watched a television clip as a college educated woman explained that she could just never vote for Trump. Now she said she was having to decide if she would vote at all since Biden it so unexciting.
A lot of libs and Blacks will just stay home.