Where do these numbers come from?
For you: I have a very good friend who is a well connected political activist who has worked on both state and national level campaigns. One of his friends is a very well respected data scientist who owns a large firm who does data analyses for big business, government and other entities. He also does politics. He did Trumps internals for 2016 and has worked on other campaigns. He is very accurate and works as independent and gives people real world numbers. He uses the scientific method using the actual demographics along with bigger sample sizes. Most of the polls you see are done by the political hacks who are trying to discourage people from voting. I have seen much of the data coming from this resource start showing up with other pollsters so we can use him as a leading indicator. I would love to share his name and firm but I cannot. His data is also not available to the public so you will not be able to find it.