It is a turnout game and the trend is our friend.
Here’s how the daily turnout ratio has progressed since in-person early voting opened in FL (inc. both in-person and mail):
The morning of 10/19, the overall ratio was D/R 1.62
10/19 D/R 1.02
10/20 D/R 1.02
10/21 R/D 1.08
10/22 R/D 1.18
10/23 R/D 1.21
10/24 R/D 1.16
10/25 R/D 1.07
10/26 R/D 1.42
Now D/R is 1.12
If the R/D ratio is 1.19 from here to the end (the average of the last 6 days), then R’s gain 323,520.
noon update
Daily
EV Rep +23697
Mail- Dem +996
Net +Rep 22701
1.19 means we turnout 19% more per day over Ds?
The Monk in me says lets shoot for 20%. A much more even number.