40 percent chance? We’re quibbling. Both sides should think this is a toss-up and work like hell to get out the vote.
I agree: Iowa and Ohio are not battlegrounds. Neither are Virginia or Colorado.
I disagree: Maine, Nevada and New Hampshire are in play, and potentially so is New Mexico.
Plus, we’re still 16 days out. The polls could still move. There’s another debate coming up. The Hunter Biden story can develop legs. And Trump’s on a rampage.
If Trump wins Maine, the Democrat party as we know it is dead. It will be 12 years before a large number of GOP Senators are up for re-election in a Presidential year again - the republic will likely be saved for another generation.