No. Trump won GA by 5.7 points, with another 3.1 points going to Gary Johnson. This poll is a steaming pile of manure. Unless polls showing Biden up 12 points nationally are legitimate. [giggle]
Thanks.
“Trump won GA by 5.7 points,”
There were two anomalies in 2016: Gwinnett & Cobb counties.
Two counties on the north side of Atlanta, together they contain 28% of the population of the state. They are GOP counties and have been for 20 years.
In 2016 they voted for Hillary. Yet, in all other respects, they remain Republican counties. The Democrats are not making inroads locally.
I believe the 2016 Hillary vote in those counties was caused by the scare tactics used against Trump. Now that voters have had four years of Trump and seen how he governs, many of those 2016 Hillary voters will return to their normal GOP voting pattern.
But note that even with the Gwinnett & Cobb anomalies, Trump still won the state by 5.7%
The other thing people don’t take into account in GA is the black vote. GA is 30% black. When there is a black person on the ballot (like the 2018 governor’s race) they turn out in mass and make the statewide races close. But when there isn’t, they don’t.
2018 Gov race: 50% vs 49%
2014 Gov race: 53% vs 45%
The difference between these two races is there was a black candidate running for governor in 2018, and thus a huge black turnout.
There is no statewide black candidate running. Whether Kamala’s presence on the ticket will trigger a huge black turnout is unknown, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of enthusiasm for her in the black community.
With Gwinnett & Cobb back to voting their normal GOP voting pattern, and a normal black turnout, Trump should win the state handily.