South Carolina Early Vote (Racial comparison 16 vs 20)

SC Votes ^ | 10/14/20 | me

[struggle]

>Smaller percentage of blacks, which is a good thing.

I can tell you my black bro-in-law is in that number and he’s not voting Biden.

[Coop]

Trump won SC in 2016 about 55-41%.

Sen. Lindsey Graham won 54-39% in 2014.

[Cathi]

I think the short fall in expected youth voting is due to the fact that so much of youth voting in the past has been organized by college organizations exerting pressure, who due to lock downs have now lost access to their propagandized students...:-)

Speaking of Karens, according to Patrick Basham (Democracy Institute) Trump has been weak with suburban white women but over the last couple months they have begun to return because of the riots. Some of them are even buying guns.

[DeplorablePaul]

No. Only online SC group I follow is here.

I would definitely predict that Trump is going to win big in SC with coat tails for senate and congressional candidates.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“I can tell you my black bro-in-law is in that number and he’s not voting Biden.”

Black conservatives are decent people.

[SpeedyInTexas]

SC won’t be particularly close, president or senate.

Dem donors around the country are wasting their money. Same in Kentucky.

We should be happy that money is wasted there instead of a competitive race.

[Coop]

Black cConservatives are decent people.

Fixed it for you. I agree, Trump wins comfortably and I think Graham wins by a handful.

[CheshireTheCat]

I think the short fall in expected youth voting is due to the fact that so much of youth voting in the past has been organized by college organizations exerting pressure, who due to lock downs have now lost access to their propagandized students...:-)
___________________________________________________

There is what you say. That results in D’s not being able to get college students even registered to vote in the town where their college is.

But there are the students who go “away” to college in their home state and who are already registered because they may have been 18 in 2016 or they drove two hours hon they would have if not for ‘rona.

There are also the commuter students who don’t like paying full price for an inferior virtual experience and who like to go to parties on or near campus from time to time and can’t, not to mention the restaurant where they worked went out of business.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Ralston says Trump could win NV given very high turnout and double digit win with Indies. One issue he ignored with his “2016 exits” mapping to 2020. Trump will win bigger with Rs in 2020. That 88% number will go at least 90%, maybe higher.
The Libertarian will win fewer votes this time.

“So you can see if Trump wins indies here by double digits, as your favorite data geek has been arguing, the race will be very tight in Nevada. Almost no polls have shown that — some have found the president with a small lead. So unless one candidate experiences a huge dropoff in base support, it’s safe to say Trump needs to win indies by at least 10 and perhaps more.”

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

[Coop]

Interesting reading, but I’m not sure how the author can definitively claim Trump needs indies by 10+ points to win when there’s so little data (especially from Pubbies). In 2016 Trump lost NV by ~26K votes. Gary Johnson and “None of these Candidates” combined for 66K votes during that election. (2.5 times Trump’s losing margin.) This time around Pres. Trump has the bully pulpit, more money, more time to establish a ground game, higher GOP approval, and a large & steady enthusiasm gap in his favor. Donald Trump Jr. is in Las Vegas tonight for an event.

[jimpick]

I will be working at the polls on election day for Trump. So I will be there for the full 16 hours and will vote during a slow time.

Based on the number of mailed in ballets during the primary the number of voters will be down already. Only had about 175 people show up at the primary to vote.

[LS]

My calculations were made for 12-13% vote for Trump; an additional 5% stay home.
Between 4-6M taken off DemoKKKrat national totals.

Currently this is at 3% stay home and we don’t know the % for Trump. But if it’s 12%, 3M taken of DemoKKKrat national totals.

Trump just won the popular vote, right there.

Now, let’s do students, shall we???

[kabar]

Thanks

[Ravi]

Interesting because they’re throwing everything at the early vote and vote-by-mail. If this is their high (29.5%), my guess is the Black % of the vote would continue a downward trajectory. Same thing is happening in Georgia. Black % of the vote dropped in Georgia yesterday from 33.4% to 32.9%. This also should continue a downward glide path

[Ravi]

NV will definitely be interesting to watch election night. I really feel it's doable based on what Coop is saying.

The Dem statewide advantage is now down to 84,000. Was higher previously. The x-factor for me is that "Independent American" party which is now up to 77,000 voters. Are these super conservative voters? Will they vote? I assume they break for Trump hard if they do vote. These voters are separate from the Non-partisan voters.

Again very interesting.

[Cathi]

This is interesting:

TRelections
@TRElections
·

It’s still very early, and only 7% of the total 2016 vote is fully reported in Pennsylvania. But among Democrats in Philadelphia County (home to Drexel University, UPenn and Temple Uni), the Dem youth early vote in 2016 was 23.4%. This year? It’s 11.2%. Still early.