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[The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian

https://jrnyquist.blog/2019/09/11/the-secret-speech-of-general-chi-haotian/]

I read this essay probably a decade ago. There are no references to needing to get rid of tens of millions of single Chinese men. There is a claim that China will run out of resources, which is a crock, given that China produces more oil than all of the EU combined - 4 million barrels a day. China also has a lower population density than the EU. To pay for imports, it ran a massive trade surplus even back then that produced enough foreign currency reserves to cover the cost without deflating the yuan. China is the world’s biggest producer of gold, and is top 5 in many minerals. China’s poverty is completely man-made rather than the product of sparse natural resources.

There are a couple of other problems with the essay, anachronisms almost. It keeps referring to Comrade Xiaoping. That’s like saying President Donald. Another problem is the repeated references to foreign personalities that the average Chinese military man probably has no idea about. It’s got the feel of Tom Clancy’s Chinese characters in The Bear and The Dragon - an under-researched caricature of the real thing.

A third problem with the essay has to do with the historical fact that a lunge for the Americas would be a complete flip of China’s tendency to go for territory close to home. The reasons are completely practical. Faraway territories are hard to conquer and hard to keep within the empire once conquered, given that commanders have every incentive to strike out on their own. Vietnam was once part of a Chinese empire. Then the local Chinese govenor decided he preferred to be king in his own domain than a governor in somebody else’s empire.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Tuo

The casual talk about nuclear war is antithetical to Chinese strategists. Their principal concern is preservation of kith and kin, followed by their place in history. No general who gets 500m Chinese killed is going to look good in the history books. Leaders go to war to enhance, not blacken their reputations.

[The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian

https://jrnyquist.blog/2019/09/11/the-secret-speech-of-general-chi-haotian/]

Note I’m not saying that they won’t venture beyond their borders. I think it’s highly likely they will, but their targets will be close to home, for the usual reasons - easier to take and hold. And they will venture forth, not primarily for resources, but for personal glory, like pretty much every conqueror in history. And each success, and addition to population and resources, will lead them to expand their horizons. Which is why it would be good to stop them early. We embargoed Japan to prevent it from conquering China, thereby acquiring a springboard for further acquisitions. Similarly, we need to prevent China from gaining any more territory. It’s already so population- and resource-rich that it’s way more more threatening than Japan was when it struck at Pearl Harbor. We don’t need China gaining any more land or population.