Is War With China Becoming Inevitable?

Townhall.com ^ | October 13, 2020 | Pat Buchanan

[Old Yeller]

If Joe & Blow win, there won’t be a war. China will take over “peaceably”. The

[dfwgator]

[clearcarbon]

"Commiela, Xillary, DiFi and the Dem apparatus will advise we do nothing in response except write some stern letters of protest. "

Déjà vu

[Dick Vomer]

" We will never have a direct war with China...Proxy war..yes.

Direct war is a losing bet for both China and the U.S.A. We will indirectly support proxies with weapons and intelligence."

What if China wants to get rid of a couple of million men between the ages of 17-35 that are unemployed or underemployed unable to find wives because of prior policies discouraging multiple children and have gaining a common enemy that the country can unite against?

What if there are American "intellectuals", corporate boards and policy makers that think we have an over-population problem and wouldn't mind getting rid of a couple of million patriotic American men in order to consolidate their power and control over the proles/sheep here in the US?

[Bulwyf]

In 2006 a Chinese general said just what you did about their one child policy. Said they needed a war to clear out lots of them.

[PreciousLiberty]

We already had the first one, in Korea.

Times right now remind me of right before WW1.

[Zhang Fei]

[In 2006 a Chinese general said just what you did about their one child policy. Said they needed a war to clear out lots of them.]

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Do you recall the source? I’m skeptical that *any* Chinese general would say something so head-scratching, in light of the Chinese historical record. 2200 years ago, China’s Spartacus dethroned the First Emperor (i.e. the guy who created China out of dozens of independent kingdoms by drowning it in oceans of blood) and slaughtered his entire clan to the tune of tens of thousands. The proximate cause of the disturbances that kicked it off? Draft riots. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Gaozu_of_Han#Insurrection_against_the_Qin_dynasty It’s hard to think of any other regime in antiquity that was established by a peasant. Japan’s Hideyoshi Toyotomi came close, but his regime collapsed immediately after his death under siege from his vassal Tokugawa Ieyasu. Whereas this Chinese peasant established a dynasty that saw his bloodline rule the empire for 400 years.

[PreciousLiberty]

We won’t be sending armies to fight the Chinese, but our air and sea forces could remove their offensive naval capability in short order. Same for coastal air defenses...

[roadcat]

What if China wants to get rid of a couple of million men between the ages of 17-35 ...
What if there are American "intellectuals", corporate boards and policy makers that think we have an over-population problem and wouldn't mind getting rid of a couple of million patriotic American men...

Regarding China: it takes money, equipment and resources to move millions of soldiers across the Pacific to the U.S.A.
Regarding the U.S.A.: it takes money, equipment and resources to move millions of soldiers across the Pacific to China.

Wars are cheaper to run with proxies. China really doesn't have many proxies, while the U.S.A. does in the Pacific region. China would lose, and they know that.
No direct war with China (for now).

[roadcat]

“We need to get our house in order first.”
So, don’t vote for Biden?

If I were to mention what I think needs to be done to get our house in order, I would get in trouble. Goes beyond not voting for Biden. The left is having a war in our country, burning, looting, assaults and general mayhem. And that's without China attacking us.

[Bulwyf]

I was reading emails that were army internal, and I don’t recall the source. I remember that I read it in 08, but he’d said it in 06. It was definitely said, and I haven’t heard that since. Anyone that has some situational and historical awareness would realize that this was the case anyways.

[Zhang Fei]

[I was reading emails that were army internal, and I don’t recall the source. I remember that I read it in 08, but he’d said it in 06. It was definitely said, and I haven’t heard that since. Anyone that has some situational and historical awareness would realize that this was the case anyways.]

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If he said it, the quality of Chinese military commanders is slipping. Not exactly a surprise, given how lucrative the Chinese private sector is, these days. The very basic truth that China is a land of hoi polloi revolts, and mutinies by both civilian* and military officials. Tyrannical impositions, whether impressed military service or corvee labor, have caused the collapses of multiple regimes. Heck - a big part of the reason for the defeat of the Nationalist regime by the Communists was the huge sacrifices incurred during the Sino-Japanese War, where the Nationalists lost millions of dead, whereas the Communists lost less than 1/10 that number, thanks to their policy of avoiding battle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War

* Within living memory, Deng Xiaoping mounted a coup against Mao’s handpicked successor, making himself China’s 3rd leader since the 1949 victory:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hua_Guofeng#Ousting_and_death

[Bulwyf]

I need to read up on Chinese history more. I know quite a bit, but not as much as I should. Interesting stuff.

[Dick Vomer]

Regarding China: it takes money, equipment and resources to move millions of soldiers across the Pacific to the U.S.A.

The logistics of moving the men to India, Vietnam, Korea, Taiwan or Japan...is not that much....

What do "we" do? Let them roll in?

Regarding the U.S.A.: it takes money, equipment and resources to move millions of soldiers across the Pacific to China.

Didn't really stop us when we did that to Japan... If it becomes an "existential" war... we can print money like there's no tomorrow.

and that's how empires end... just like everyone before it. Not with a bang, but a whimper.

[roadcat]

Didn't really stop us when we did that to Japan... If it becomes an "existential" war... we can print money like there's no tomorrow.

Let me know when China bombs Pearl Harbor, then I might entertain your idea of sending millions of our soldiers to China. Meanwhile, ain't happening.

[roadcat]

The logistics of moving the men to India, Vietnam, Korea, Taiwan or Japan...is not that much....

Are you paying and coordinating? I think you don't understand the logistics of moving men and materials during war. Estimates are that it would take China several months to slog their way towards the capital of Taiwan, and that's if they manage to land at the shore of Taiwan. Logistics are difficult. Even more so if China were to attempt to send troops to the U.S.A. across the Pacific. Ain't happening.

[Zhang Fei]

[I need to read up on Chinese history more. I know quite a bit, but not as much as I should. Interesting stuff.]

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I’m a dilettante myself, but my impression is that no Chinese ruler lightly wastes troops in battle, because he cannot be sure of their fealty or steadfastness in battle. Re fealty - I’m not Chinese myself, but my impression, from a Washington state (non-Chinese) expat who spent time in-country as an English teacher, every Chinese views himself as an emperor-in-waiting biding his time for the right opportunity. That’s not promising ground for a leader looking to use them like toilet paper. Re steadfastness in battle - they’re not kamikazes looking to win favor for the emperor. Most understand they’re pawns being used by the people up top for personal glory, like other front line soldiers throughout history. That’s why troop mutinies are not some rare event there.

A troop mutiny in Wuhan kicked off the revolt that toppled the last de jure emperor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuchang_Uprising#New_Army_mutiny

The mutiny succeeded because the equivalent of the ancien regime’s military chief decided to join in the festivities, as part of a scheme to set himself up as the founding emperor of a new dynasty. It would be as if Milloy decided to cast his lot with Antifa to make himself King.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuan_Shikai#Wuchang_Uprising_and_republic

Bottom line is that the scenarios being thrown around re projected Chinese actions lack any grounding in Chinese historical fact. China’s dictator is seriously constrained by (1) what the hoi polloi will put up with, (2) his mutually-hostile rivals in competing factions who are gunning for his seat and (3) potential unrest within the military rank and file, if things don’t go as planned.

There’s an amusing subtitled Chinese series about one of the numerous Chinese equivalents of Nero/Commodus/Caligula. PG, because of a high (mostly off-screen) body count:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESdGtY0B0pk

While some aspects of the fictional adaptation were preposterous, they nonetheless gave me an excuse to look up the differences between the diverting plot and the historical account. Wikipedia has been surprisingly great in terms of the nitty-gritty on both Chinese rulers and officials. The somewhat unique aspect of the main non-fictional main character? A princess with a royal harem of 24 men.

[PastorBooks]

The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian

https://jrnyquist.blog/2019/09/11/the-secret-speech-of-general-chi-haotian/

[PastorBooks]

The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian

https://jrnyquist.blog/2019/09/11/the-secret-speech-of-general-chi-haotian/

[Zhang Fei]

[The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian

https://jrnyquist.blog/2019/09/11/the-secret-speech-of-general-chi-haotian/]

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I read this essay probably a decade ago. There are no references to needing to get rid of tens of millions of single Chinese men. There is a claim that China will run out of resources, which is a crock, given that China produces more oil than all of the EU combined - 4 million barrels a day. China also has a lower population density than the EU. To pay for imports, it ran a massive trade surplus even back then that produced enough foreign currency reserves to cover the cost without deflating the yuan. China is the world’s biggest producer of gold, and is top 5 in many minerals. China’s poverty is completely man-made rather than the product of sparse natural resources.

There are a couple of other problems with the essay, anachronisms almost. It keeps referring to Comrade Xiaoping. That’s like saying President Donald. Another problem is the repeated references to foreign personalities that the average Chinese military man probably has no idea about. It’s got the feel of Tom Clancy’s Chinese characters in The Bear and The Dragon - an under-researched caricature of the real thing.

A third problem with the essay has to do with the historical fact that a lunge for the Americas would be a complete flip of China’s tendency to go for territory close to home. The reasons are completely practical. Faraway territories are hard to conquer and hard to keep within the empire once conquered, given that commanders have every incentive to strike out on their own. Vietnam was once part of a Chinese empire. Then the local Chinese govenor decided he preferred to be king in his own domain than a governor in somebody else’s empire.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Tuo

The casual talk about nuclear war is antithetical to Chinese strategists. Their principal concern is preservation of kith and kin, followed by their place in history. No general who gets 500m Chinese killed is going to look good in the history books. Leaders go to war to enhance, not blacken their reputations.