Posted on 10/10/2020 1:07:35 PM PDT by knighthawk
Those numbers are close 37 democrats to 32 republicans. I don’t like this poll.
“Who are the other 8% voting for??”
Trump said a few months ago, whether you love me or hate me, you have to vote for me.
I think the 8% are those who dislike Trump but will hopefully end up voting for him anyway.
I hope that the results of the November election send many pollsters to the fate of the Dodos.
yup, senility central
Bkmk
Trump knows. He knows that it doesn’t matter where the polls are during the race. The only thing that counts is what happens when they cross the finish line. He could be 900 points behind at the start and be 1 point ahead at the finish line. There is no second place in an election because 2nd place is just another loser as if they were 15th place. Just ask Hitlary. Polls only show how much money people are spending on stupid things.
I want to see Trump win California. I can dream, can’t I? But I can also pray.
Not so sure I believe in surveys of panels.
Panels are assembled and maintained so as to mimic the population. The better panels, such as YouGov and Harris, normally do a reasonably good job of this. The worse, such as Ipsos, suck.
But, these aren’t normal times. We’re trying to ferret out the so-called Shy Trumps. You know, people who don’t like being shot, fired or expelled from college because they’re discovered to be for the Orange Man.
Short, anonymous polls seem to do the trick. Trafalgar, with its robo-calls, and Zogby, with its internet polls, consistently differ from the “high quality” live caller polls. The better panel-based polls fall somewhere in between.
One of the keys is the D-R split. According to Gallup (which doesn’t ask which candidate people support), the D-R split is 1 point this year, down from 3 points four years ago. Voter registration data has been trending our way.
If the true D-R split is indeed 1 point, then this Hill-Harris Poll is off by 4 points, meaning the nationwide popular vote is tied, and we probably have the inside track to an Electoral College victory.
The only conclusion I would draw is that the race is close, either party could win, and it is very important to get out the vote. Plus, the House and Senate loom large, and there are a lot of meaningful state and local offices in play.
If Trump wins California, I will join a monastery.
P.S. I’m only half kidding.
I’d love to see my old stomping grounds, Rockland County, NY turn red for the first time since 1984. It MAY happen. Lots of Orthodox Jews there, though they consistently vote Dem locally they did break for Trump last time around. Especially in light of Trump moving the embassy to Jerusalem, also they have strong ties to the Orthodox in Brooklyn and are POed, to say the least about the screwjob diBLAHsio is giving them over the scamdemic restrictions. Rockland turning red by itself wouldn’t be enough to flip NY but what a great moral victory it would be.
In my Maryland suburb all the (many) signs but a handful are for Biden. I know it’s Maryland but just saying. Keep the pressure up.
Trump wins CA.......
"Watta frickin' deal.....Hunter gets money and girls. I gotta kiss Xi's a**."
I agree on the trend is our friend comment. The debate last Wednesday and Trump coming back are very positive. Plus, Biden is out and about and getting nailed on packing the court by local press.
I am optimistic POTUS Trump will win the popular vote this time.
Do you have a link that documents this assertion?
No one is undecided in 2020.
This kind of statement is misguided. The "margin of error" is only in regard to error based on sample size. It does not factor in other problems that will cause the poll to be off.
For example, let us say one polled 20,000 people at a Trump rallies (excluding reporters and disrupters) for who they will vote for and found that Trump was beating Biden by 99.9% to 0.1% with a tiny "margin of error". So does it make sense to say: "Trump has a 99.8% lead which dwarves the margin of error"--and thus imply that the election is a lock for Trump? Sadly, no of course not. Of course a polls sample should be large to keep the margin of error down...but the poll also must reflect the voting population...and doing that is very tricky. One can not simply think of a lead being real because its outside the "margin of error"...you have to trust the way the poll collected data is not skewed to one candidate or the other relative to the way people will vote.
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