Go over to the Trafalgar Group— their polls were the most accurate in 2016. Even they are getting a miserable response rate of < 2%. They show Trump slightly ahead in MI and WI and 3 points behind in PA. However, when you look at the internals, women are way, way over-represented, especially in PA. If that is corrected for, Trump has all three in the bag.
“However, when you look at the internals, women are way, way over-represented, especially in PA. If that is corrected for, Trump has all three in the bag.”
Oh no, I hope that Trafalgar hasn’t gone to the dark side too. Then what do we do?
There’s nothing to “correct” for if they have determined that the psychotic Karens really will be turning out in record numbers — exactly as they did in 2018. There’s sure as hell no evidence that they won’t.
Hatred is a very strong electoral motivator. It’s the ONLY thing the left has got, but they’ve got all they need and more.
Trafalgar uses proprietary methods to try to get participation by “shy” Trump voters and they do get better results than most of the others. But, even they admit that they don’t get them all and they think there are more of them this year than even in 2016.
Cahaly says that some voters say they are voting for Biden but based on how they answered other questions like do you approve of fracking (they do); do you support strict constructionist supreme court justices (they do); do you support defunding the police (they don’t.) he believes they are lying about voting for Biden but he still records them as Biden voters...:-)
Said his polls show Trump is doing great with Hispanic and black voters. His polls predict mid to high teens for black vote. Said Trump actually got 10% of the black vote in 2016 even though exit polls showed 8%. Said voters who don’t want to disclose they are voting for Trump over the phone sure don’t want to admit it to a kid with a clip board after voting...:-)
They expect Trump to win the electoral college by 30-59 votes.