Most people don’t realize that all these pollsters do their polls differently. Rasmussen uses an automated telephone method. Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. These are self selected individuals who are polled repeatedly from their panel which is why Rasmussen polls are usually relatively stable.
It’s important to understand how hard it is these days to poll Republicans. According to Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) it is 5 times more difficult than democrats. They are much less likely to answer their phones and they are much more likely to avoid disclosing that they are going to vote for Trump. Even independents and democrats are less likely to admit they plan to vote for Trump. Try not to take these panic polls seriously.
Poll results have dramatically dropped recently because:
“First it was the hysteria about the nomination; then two days later it was the hysteria about how awful Trump was at the debate; then two days after that it was he has covid and he is old, fat and may die. And if he doesn’t die well then it was he is insensitive to the 200,000 people who have.
The media has been in a complete melt down for over a week. It is affecting most of the polls; but it is temporary.
Most polls are poorly done; many are poorly done on purpose. They are a campaign tool, not a public service. Good pollsters say they never poll right after a crisis because the temporary results mislead. They try to wait for calm to poll if they are actually trying to get valid results.
Here is something I posted a little while ago explaining why the New York Times polls are absolute garbage. And many of the other media polls are garbage too for various deliberate reasons.
According to the People’s Pundit pollster NY Times/Siena polls by Nate Cohen are factoring in a HUGE 30% (41 million) increase in voters (which has absolutely no chance of happening) in their polls. “That’s ludicrous; that has never happened.”
“In all of these polls what you see is that Trump is actually leading in a normal electorate, but these new voters are breaking so heavily for Joe Biden with the massive new voters predicted it turns Texas from Trump plus 8 to plus 2; it turns Georgia from Trump plus 8 to even; it turns Arizona from Biden plus 2 to Biden plus 8; and it turns Florida from a Trump lead to Biden plus 5.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6E9GyaHzsUI
Interesting....People’s Pundit pollster said that you don’t go from +1 to -12 like Rasmussen did so quickly from changing opinion. Public opinion doesn’t work like that.
He thinks because of the covid virus its possible Rasmussen hit “response bias” in the Rasmussen poll. “Response bias is when voters and their party do not want to participate in polls and surveys because there is bad news for their guy. He wasn’t getting accurate people to tell you the truth.”