[Georgia Girl 2]

Yeh, sure. 😂

[nathanbedford]

Heads up.

[Lazamataz]

NBC Poll is PUREST of all possible excrement:

800 *REGISTERED* voters,
45% Democrat or lean Democrat.
36% Republican or lean Republican
Democrat advantage = 9%

Reuters/Ipsos does not even SHOW internals, but they make the mistake of noting the poll is +- 5%. Purest bullshit possible.

[FR33DOM4ME]

Garbage NBC poll. 800 registered voters. Not likely, small sample, I could go on and on....

[ScottinVA]

Win or lose, President Trump will fight to the end. N

[WKUHilltopper]

NBC=Nothing But Crap

[bort]

But McInturff, the GOP pollster, cautions that the survey could represent a “shock to the system” right after a consequential debate. (Democrats, for instance, hold a 9-point advantage in party identification in this poll, compared with 5- to 6-point advantages in past ones.)
_______________________________________________________
The NBC/WSJ poll is of REGISTERED voters and is a D +9 poll. Likely voters typically boost Trump’s poll number by +3 or +4. So, NBC poll says Biden has a 14 point lead, subtract 9 for the oversample, substract 3 or 4 for using registered voters and, voila, it is Biden +1 or + 2.................which means that Trump wins because of the Electoral College.

[Proudcongal]

I looked at the polls in early to mid-October 2016 and guess who had Hillary 14 points ahead from 10/8-9/16. NBC News/WSJ. And that was LV. Other polls also were major outliers and they began to get serious a week or so before the election.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

There were more polls that had Trump doing better and actually ahead than this election. My question is what has happened to Rasmussen which had Trump ahead by 1 in mid September and Biden ahead 1 in a week later and the latest poll in late Sept has Biden by 8! WFT?

[riri]

Clearly this was coordinated with infecting Trump with CV.

[Kazan]

How much of an edge in voter turnout did these polls give to Democrats?

You realize that is the most important part of a poll these days?

[AndyTheBear]

Polls of registered voters selected and questioned by the pollsters are not the same as Elections where the people get to select for themselves if they want to vote and are not required to share who they voted for.

In times and places where there is a huge enthusiasm gap, and large terror/fear campaigns, the difference between the two may well be Yuge.

[ScottinVA]

I tend to think these polls are off the mark, but if this country truly is insane enough to elect that demented old child molester, it’s beyond saving.

[Miss Didi]

I got chills throughout my body watching this video so I thought I should share it🇺🇸. I’ve never seen this amount of enthusiasm/unity since 9/11👊. I feel like we are in a Civil War and instead of guns we crush them on November 3rd👍. Trump 2020😘pic.twitter.com/Kd7sy0Eb31— Savingtheworld (@Savingworld88) October 4, 2020

[Hildy]

Whenever I get called by a poster which happens to be quite often I tell them I’m a 24-year-old Native American voting for Biden.

[Redmen4ever]

Four years ago, the early October releases of these polls showed Trump’s goose was cooked.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-after-trump-tape-revelation-clinton-s-lead-double-digits-n663691

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_10.11_.16_.pdf

At the same time, Rasmussen and Gravis showed the race to be close.

The Ipsos/Reuters poll has been consistently to the left of other polls. It’s an internet-based panel (or, evolving set of respondents). While they weight for the standard set of demographics, it’s likely their panel suffers intra-cell bias.

The WSJ/NBC poll is a high quality, live caller poll. These polls are susceptible to Shy Trumpers. It is a D+9 poll, and the country is not D+9. Maybe D+2.

The gatekeepers for the WSJ/NBC poll are Hart, which is a Democrat polling organization; and, POS, which is a Never-Trump polling organization. There should be no expectation that one is a check on the other.

We have two other recent high quality, live caller polls. Monmouth, which has a D+6 sample, gives Biden a 5 point edee; and, IBD/TIPP, which has a D+1 sample, and gives Biden a 3 point edge.

Having said all this, while the outcome is still uncertain, it does look as though Biden is ahead. There’s good and bad news in the mass of polling, but more for Biden than for Trump. Plus, it’s not just the White House that’s in play. It’s the Senate and the House. The future of the country is on the ballot this election.

[jersey117]

If these polls are even remotely true, I attribute it to the tens of millions in Biden’s non-stop ads.

[xenia]

I don’t automatically assume that since the polls were so wrong in 2016, they are way off this time as well. I hope so, but do not feel the certainty that so many on here do.

How far off were they in 2012?

[Pappy Smear]

This is an effort to push the narrative, if/when Trump wins they can raise hell with "Trump stole the election! Biden was up by 10 points! How can that be!"

I'd love to see the internals. A recent poll had independents breaking to Biden by 26%. In the last 7 elections, the biggest own of Independents was 0bama in 2008 and he was +8. Any poll that has Biden more than that in independents is complete and utter garbage.

[Gnome1949]

Nonsense. Biden’s people don’t believe this one bit. They have suddenly switched to trying door-to-door campaigning to boost their support. Biden is not miles ahead. He knows it and his people know it. Trump will win handily.

[JayAr36]

Now there are some credible sources. Reputations built on lies and it continues.