Posted on 10/04/2020 6:40:04 AM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
There are down ticket races you know...or don’t you?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls
There were more polls that had Trump doing better and actually ahead than this election. My question is what has happened to Rasmussen which had Trump ahead by 1 in mid September and Biden ahead 1 in a week later and the latest poll in late Sept has Biden by 8! WFT?
Clearly this was coordinated with infecting Trump with CV.
You realize that is the most important part of a poll these days?
In times and places where there is a huge enthusiasm gap, and large terror/fear campaigns, the difference between the two may well be Yuge.
When Trump recovers he should reach out to the entire nation, and say “my pro-America MAGA policies continued in full force to help all Americans of all colors. But my use of namecalling stops“
The sad thing is that his policies - including on immigration - are wildly popular if people are polled on them. But his style turns a lot of people off - and energized the left, probably driving them to the polls. If he were more soothing - he would be cruising to landslide re-election, imo
D plus 10. 2008 2as D plus 8
I tend to think these polls are off the mark, but if this country truly is insane enough to elect that demented old child molester, it’s beyond saving.
They'll make us a colony of China.
I got chills throughout my body watching this video so I thought I should share it🇺🇸. I’ve never seen this amount of enthusiasm/unity since 9/11👊. I feel like we are in a Civil War and instead of guns we crush them on November 3rd👍. Trump 2020😘pic.twitter.com/Kd7sy0Eb31— Savingtheworld (@Savingworld88) October 4, 2020
D plus 8 in 2020.
Thats right, its to cover for cheating.
Whenever I get called by a poster which happens to be quite often I tell them I’m a 24-year-old Native American voting for Biden.
We learned last time that voting matters. A lot.
—
Yes. Turnout is a significant factor as to who wins an election.
+-5%? It’s useless then.
CC
If you are letting these polls depress you they are succeeding at exactly what they are intended to do!! THOUSANDS came out across this country yesterday from sea to shining sea for our POTUS, cars, trucks, marches, prayer groups, bikers EVERYWHERE across this country!! Did you SEE it, did the MSM report on it, NO!!! PLEASE don’t get depressed get your ass to the polls and VOTE this POTUS is loved I mean REALLY LOVED I have never in my life seen this for a POTUS NEVER!!
Four years ago, the early October releases of these polls showed Trump’s goose was cooked.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_10.11_.16_.pdf
At the same time, Rasmussen and Gravis showed the race to be close.
The Ipsos/Reuters poll has been consistently to the left of other polls. It’s an internet-based panel (or, evolving set of respondents). While they weight for the standard set of demographics, it’s likely their panel suffers intra-cell bias.
The WSJ/NBC poll is a high quality, live caller poll. These polls are susceptible to Shy Trumpers. It is a D+9 poll, and the country is not D+9. Maybe D+2.
The gatekeepers for the WSJ/NBC poll are Hart, which is a Democrat polling organization; and, POS, which is a Never-Trump polling organization. There should be no expectation that one is a check on the other.
We have two other recent high quality, live caller polls. Monmouth, which has a D+6 sample, gives Biden a 5 point edee; and, IBD/TIPP, which has a D+1 sample, and gives Biden a 3 point edge.
Having said all this, while the outcome is still uncertain, it does look as though Biden is ahead. There’s good and bad news in the mass of polling, but more for Biden than for Trump. Plus, it’s not just the White House that’s in play. It’s the Senate and the House. The future of the country is on the ballot this election.
It seems that some have forgotten about the down ticket races which are important as well.
Polls are very, very easily manipulated but enthusiasm is not. I have no idea except to believe massive manipulation in the polling data to bring about desired results is occurring. How else can 4 polls in 2 days have such starkly different results?
Hispanics are important to the candidates and by many polls Trump has gained a lot and now is at near 40 % and is close to tripled his approval with Blacks. These numbers have been confirmed many times.
These 2 polls today claim to be post debate polls and cite the results as based on what they believe is Bidens winning the debate. And yet Univision had an on line poll (same as at least one of these today and Hispanics say Trump won with over 65% voting that way vs under 30 for Biden. Then there was a twitter poll which gave Trump the win in the debate with over 66% voting that way. Is twitter a conservative domain? I don’t think so.
The bottom line is polling is mostly broken because the media are massively dishonest and many, many Conservatives want nothing to do with responding to the calls from pollsters.
It seems that some have forgotten about the down ticket races which are important as well.
Polls are very, very easily manipulated but enthusiasm is not. I have no idea except to believe massive manipulation in the polling data to bring about desired results is occurring. How else can 4 polls in 2 days have such starkly different results?
Hispanics are important to the candidates and by many polls Trump has gained a lot and now is at near 40 % and is close to tripled his approval with Blacks. These numbers have been confirmed many times.
These 2 polls today claim to be post debate polls and cite the results as based on what they believe is Bidens winning the debate. And yet Univision had an on line poll (same as at least one of these today and Hispanics say Trump won with over 65% voting that way vs under 30 for Biden. Then there was a twitter poll which gave Trump the win in the debate with over 66% voting that way. Is twitter a conservative domain? I don’t think so.
The bottom line is polling is mostly broken because the media are massively dishonest and many, many Conservatives want nothing to do with responding to the calls from pollsters.
It seems that some have forgotten about the down ticket races which are important as well.
Polls are very, very easily manipulated but enthusiasm is not. I have no idea except to believe massive manipulation in the polling data to bring about desired results is occurring. How else can 4 polls in 2 days have such starkly different results?
Hispanics are important to the candidates and by many polls Trump has gained a lot and now is at near 40 % and is close to tripled his approval with Blacks. These numbers have been confirmed many times.
These 2 polls today claim to be post debate polls and cite the results as based on what they believe is Bidens winning the debate. And yet Univision had an on line poll (same as at least one of these today and Hispanics say Trump won with over 65% voting that way vs under 30 for Biden. Then there was a twitter poll which gave Trump the win in the debate with over 66% voting that way. Is twitter a conservative domain? I don’t think so.
The bottom line is polling is mostly broken because the media are massively dishonest and many, many Conservatives want nothing to do with responding to the calls from pollsters.
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