Florida Early Vote update, 09/28/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 09/28/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Small number of ballots this morning. Larger numbers later in the week.

Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).

<1% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.

<1% of REP ballots have been returned and <1% of DEM ballots have been returned.

09/28/20: REPs - 2,272, DEMs - 3,555, lead of 1,283 for DEMs, 47.7% to 30.5%

09/27/20: REPs - 2,165, DEMs - 3,411, lead of 1,246 for DEMs, 47.9% to 30.4%

09/26/20: REPs - 1,983, DEMs - 3,184, lead of 1,201 for DEMs, 48.2% to 30.0%

09/25/20: REPs - 754, DEMs - 1,673, lead of 919 for DEMs, 55.0% to 24.8%

[SpeedyInTexas]

These early returns are mostly from overseas and military.

[SpeedyInTexas]

ping

[adorno]

Vote by mail, or early voting, should not be allowed more than 2 weeks before the actual election day.

Hundreds, if not thousands, of those early voters might be dead by the time election day comes around. With democrats, no doubt many thousands of those voters have been dead for many months if not years, and/or, those voters never existed.

[Ravi]

Quick overnight round-up of voter registration changes of the major counties in Florida show another small net win for the GOP. One week until books close.

[Ravi]

That’s not how anything works

[bort]

As always, thank you for posting this information.

Larry has emphasized the “student vote” drop off(which is reflected in the registration gap that has occurred all over the country). The untold story is the “Democrats scared of China Virus” drop off. I’ve been looking at the NC numbers. Superficially, the Dems appear to be kicking our asses having requested and returned roughly 3X more ballots than Republicans. However, 71% of these Dem mail in ballots are from voters who voted IN-PERSON in 2016 (7% voted by mail in 2016). Republican NC mail-in voters, by contrast? Only 56% of NC mail-in Republican voters voted IN-PERSON in 2016 (20% voted by mail).

This means that Democrats are likely cannibalizing their election day vote. Notably, Democrat women are by far leading this NC “vote by mail surge.” That’s likely because Democrat women, via polling and my personal experience, are THE MOST LIKELY TO FEAR THE CHINA VIRUS.

The problems for Democrats are:
1) Their universe of “soft Democrats,” i.e., the unenthused voter who has to get dragged to the polls every four years is disproportionately more likely to fear going to a crowded polling place or to get on a get-out-to-vote bus.
2) Their mail-in ballots are being rejected at a substantially higher rate than Republican ballots. Black vote-by-mail ballots in NC are being rejected at a 5% (!) clip, whereas whites are being rejected at less than 2%. Minority voters and young voters are more likely to screw up their mail-in ballots (no signature, mismatching signature, wrong address, etc.). The Democrats may lose a net 15K to 20K votes vs. Republicans alone based on spoiled NC mail-in ballots.

[ConservativeInPA]

Please explain how the percentages work here: 09/28/20: REPs - 2,272, DEMs - 3,555, lead of 1,283 for DEMs, 47.7% to 30.5%. They don’t add up to 100% and they are not close to the ratio of GOP:RAT return rate.

[Ravi]

Don’t forget unaffiliateds.

[Rocky]

Not sure this is the explanation, but I can make the math work in this manner:

2272 R
+ 3555 D
+ 1624 Other
= 7451

2272/7451 = 30.5% R
3555/7451 = 47.7% D

[Ravi]

This is the cannibalization data I was looking for - where are you finding this?

[ConservativeInPA]

I do not see any unaffiliated tallies on the website. Maybe my eye sight is going in my old age, but my simple math skills certainly have not, nor my advanced skills.

[CTyank]

Hope you are correct.

Will the DNC & Cooper’s electioneering power grab stand?

9 days to collect absentee ballots after the election gives Cooper’s DNC/Soros machine more than enough time to manufacture a win.

[Ravi]

5. Return your ballot to your county board of elections. Only the voter or the voter’s near relative or legal guardian may possess the absentee ballot to return it to the board of elections. In 2020, there are a few ways to return your absentee ballot:
By mail to your county board of elections, postmarked on or before Election Day, and received by 5 p.m. November 6
By commercial courier service (DHL, FedEx or UPS) Dropped off in person at your county board of elections office by 5 p.m. Election Day (November 3) Dropped off in person at any early voting site in your county during voting hours

[Ravi]

Here's the site where's Speedy is getting the data:
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[adorno]

That’s not how anything works

I'm not talking about how things work. I'm talking about how things SHOULD work.

People voting so early, and then dying before election day, would mean that, there were thousands of dead people who voted. Between six weeks before election day and election day, one can expect that hundreds (perhaps thousands) of people died who voted early.

[bort]

Old North State Politics.

[Ravi]

Thanks! Remember them from 2016.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“2272 R
+ 3555 D
+ 1624 Other
= 7451

2272/7451 = 30.5% R
3555/7451 = 47.7% D”

Yep, that is the math. The unaffiliated make up the difference to 100%. I don’t include them because, well, I’m interested in D to R voting.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Also, the FL data can be updated 4 times a day. It has already been updated again today.

But you got the numbers to match up before a change!

[SpeedyInTexas]

Good info!