Biden Nearly 5 Times More Likely than Trump to Win Election, Forecast Models Average Shows

Newsweek ^ | 09/17/2020 | Jeffery Martin

[SeekAndFind]

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite to win the U.S. election against President Donald Trump, according to an average of 7 different forecast models released on Thursday.

Presidential elections in the U.S. are not decided by who gets the most votes. In order to actually win the contest, a candidate must receive a majority of votes in the Electoral College. There are a total of 538 individuals from each state who decide which candidate becomes president. Candidates need at least 270 Electoral College votes to clinch the presidency.

While those electors often follow the popular vote, that has not always been the case. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote against Trump, gaining 48.2 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent. However, Trump picked up 306 Electoral College votes to Clinton's 232 votes, making Trump the president.

In each of Thursday's seven election forecast models, Biden was projected to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. As averaged together by the website Election Dice, those models predicted that Trump has a 17.9 percent chance of winning while Biden has an 81.8 percent chance of winning. Biden's odds of victory are projected to be nearly five times greater than that of President Trump's.

Data from The Economist showed Biden holding an 8-point lead over Trump, 54 percent to 46 percent respectively. Biden was projected to get 335 votes in the Electoral College, more than the 270 votes needed to become president. Trump was projected to receive 203 electoral votes.

Polling site FiveThirtyEight placed Biden ahead of Trump in the popular vote. Biden held 52.7 percentage points to President Trump's 46 percent. Based on those numbers, Biden was projected to receive 328 votes in the Electoral College

[skimbell]

Sounds like JoePedo is going to trounce Trump worse than Hillary did last time.

[Maskot]

I see these huge Trump signs EVERYWHERE in my area. Not just signs. Huge signs with 2x4’s holding the up, flags, yard signs, cars all Trumped up. Biden? A few piddly yard signs and one old commie walking the corner. Trump is done, I tell ya! There is so much enthusiasm for Joementia 🙄

[Maskot]

Yep but those suicides will be listed as COVID-19 to pad the numbers and “make Trump look bad”

[Maskot]

Right??? Burst everyone’s bubble. 🤣 Sorry but IT’S BOSTON, land of doing the same thing over and over and over again and expecting different results is a way of life!

[mikey_hates_everything]

“I see these huge Trump signs EVERYWHERE in my area.”

Yep, and I enjoy traveling through those areas seeing those signs because it sure as heck doesn’t look like that here in Fairfax County. Can get depressing.

[WWG1WWA]

LOL Are you really that stupid, Jeffrey?

[al_c]

Excuse me?

[al_c]

Ah ... never mind. Jeffery is the author.

[kempster]

Are these the same models that President Hillary Clinton relied on? Newsweek is so credible.

[Deplorable American1776]

66% other non-whites LV? I'd love to see that polling?

But then, I saw a poll that had Hollywood LV Trump's job approval at 2%...we need to fix that...😀

[Deplorable American1776]

Florida to Biden? Lol....The only statewide Dem is the Agriculture Sec, who got in on less than 1000 votes. The Republican candidate was good, but the D campaigner on Marijuana issues...

[Deplorable American1776]

In the Mexican neighborhood here in Hillsborough County, there’s a few Trump signs...I see a few Biden (one in front of a gay couple, since they fly the gay pride flag), but Trump signs are around 5 to 1...

[cowboyusa]

Dewey defeats Truman.

[simpson96]

The desperation to ‘gaslight’ people is breathtaking.