But Arizona will be at risk by 2024, as California continues to melt down and “moderate Democrats” continue following conservatives out the door to nearby states.
Yes, the Dims are gaining strength in AZ, but it appears the GOP is growing in WI, MI, PA, and, possibly, MN. I remember 25 years ago, Missouri was the ultimate “swing” state. Today, it’s solid red. So, I think it’s possible for those midwest states to follow suit.
I am wondering if some of those “moderate dems” may be in the process of going through the transformation described in that old 1970’s adage...
“A liberal is one mugging away from becoming a conservative.”
While they will still clutch the pearls and exclaim “I just couldn’t!” when asked about Trump for this cycle, they may be willing to go for an R every now and then down the line.