Trump will have 320 on election night. Even with late counting in PA, he’ll have more than enough. States have til Dec. 14 to certify their electors, meaning they can possibly count until then.
There is NO clear understanding of what happens if 270 are certified but that all states haven’t certified. There are two opinions:
1) You need only a quorum of 538. Trump wins.
2) Any states that don’t certify lose their vote. Trump wins.
vs.
3) You need all 538 present to select a president. No winner if some haven’t counted.
4) If this goes to the House, Trump wins (they count, according to the Constitution, by delegation, not members: Rs have 26 delegations). But in this scenario, the Senate must pick from the top two EC vote recipients (Biden and . . . it’s not clear if the veep now becomes a “EC vote recipient.”)
That Dec. 14 date, as best I can find, is NOT moveable. In Bush v. Gore, the USSC ruled that FL could not count past the date of submitting the electors, Dec. 12 of that year. This year it is Dec. 14.
Highly unlikely a USSC will overturn itself, particularly in a 20 year period.
If we pick up cd-2 in Maine, is it a 26-23 split in the house delegation vote?