Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: CodeToad

This is based on
a) According to eight rolling polls for four years, Trump’s black approval has risen to between 15 and 31% (big gap). But say that the 15 represents the “actual” vote: that would equal about 2-3m MORE blacks voting for him than in 2016. But you have to also figure that there is a “Stay-at-home” factor in that remaining percentage of about 3-5% and another 1% siphoned off to Kanye. So the net black vote for Trump will be in the neighborhood of 15-17%, or 3-5 million FEWER blacks voting for Demented Perv Biteme.
b) Now factor in the shortfall in students, who are not on campus to be organized, mobilized, etc. as int 2018 when they had an all time high 40% turnout rate. I think this will be off by 30%. There are 14m students nationally, x say 30% turnout x 60% are DemoKKKrats: that means Ds will be DOWN 1 to 1.5m students AT BEST. (Could be closer to 2m)

Just in these categories, before Trump flips a single blue-collar, DemoKKKrat, or suburban voter, he has gained 3m and Demented Perv Biteme has lost 5-6m.

To me that looks like Trump wins the popular vote with around 63-65m.


34 posted on 09/05/2020 7:14:06 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies ]


To: LS

Totally agree, not to mention many other pro-Trump factors at play as well.


35 posted on 09/05/2020 8:20:40 AM PDT by CodeToad (Arm Up! They Have!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson