...travel and business will be back to normal in the next six weeks,
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I don’t have a chart, but the trend is down over just 3 months. I think that will continue.
Straight line extrapolations are almost always in error, but the trend is amazing, considering what has been done to foil reopening.
I think the pre-election attacks on the economy (as a surrogate for POTUS)will moderate, especially since they have rebounded against not just the Ds in general, but House candidates in particular. They appear to be between the rock and the hard place, so I expect more openings and less fear.
There were new hirings in the current report. That should continue, as well. Hospitality usually winds down at the end of summer, many places. My area sees a surge for hunting season and that should go on as usual. Economies are always in flux. Perhaps the jobs that become available will moderate the losses in other sectors.
I don’t have a crystal ball, of course. But the Ds evidently think they need to be seen as helping the economy, so their obstruction should moderate, at the least.
I think you are missing my point.
The airlines have been kept afloat with the subsidies of the government. That is why they haven’t been massive layoffs and they fly half empty flights. That will end in October. The airlines will go bankrupt if they continue to operate without that subsidy.
You can project the trend line as far out as you desire. But there are significant potholes coming down the road. Not everyone is aware of them, but they are real. And they will be serious—the week of the election.