IIRC, a Republican won the NE Minnesota Congressional District recently.
Yep, “For many decades, the district reliably voted Democratic, but in 2016, Republicans made strong gains and Donald Trump carried the district by a 15-point margin. In the 2018 midterm election, it was one of only three congressional districts in the country which flipped to Republican.”
Trump lost the 4 counties in NE Minnesota, the Twin Cities, and then Olmsted County (Rochester). He didn’t lose the state by much. If he has flipped those 4 counties, I would think he wins the state.