The current situation was not only predictable, it was predicted at the time - tension over the Spratly Islands in particular has been an issue between China, Vietnam, and the Philippines for decades. Open sea lanes has been a U.S. strategic priority for even longer, and our current much-diminished presence is in support of that, but such facilities were a lot cheaper to maintain than they will be to re-establish and I don't sense any political will in D.C. to attempt to recreate the old status quo in a changed, multi-polar world. U.S. imperialism may not seem such a bad thing when faced with the alternative, but I don't think it's coming back.
I will say this, that Vietnam knows how to kick ChiCom ass.
I was over there at that time. As I understand it, the bases agreement expired in 1992 and we did not agree to the demands of the Philippine Senate to renew the lease. We were paying $400 million to lease the bases and they were demanding $1 billion to renew. A U S Senator (Lugar ?) went over there to Discuss renewing the lease and the Philippine Senators, thinking that they had us over a barrel and could take advantage, were very disrespectful to our Senator. Typical of Filipinos! I believe that and the $1B demand is when the decision was made to give the bases back at the end of the lease.
This was well before Mount Pinatubo erupted and Pinatubo had nothing to do with the decision. I had received confidential conversations about returning “stuff” back to the States before Pinatubo happened.
This playing this China card is nothing new. Back in the early 1970’s I was in and out of the P.I. frequently and even then the P.I. Gov was threatening to kick us out and lease Subic and Cubi to the Chinese.
I first went to Subic in 1956. The U.S. Navy owned or controlled everything around Olongapo and Barrio Barretto all the way out to White Rock Beach. Olongapo had dirt streets and there was nothing between the bridge and the Victory Liner terminal except jungle
Through the years the Filipinos whined about their “sovereignty” and little by little all of the bases were transferred to the P.I. Gov.. At the main gate they put up a large sign that said “This is a Philippine Navy Base”, and under that, in small letters “A U.S. Navy Facility”.
The deal about their request for the U.S. to defend them works like this: We go there to defend them, we spend lots of money for bases, etc. They demand that we pay them $$$ in order to defend them! Then they tell us to leave, again, when they no longer feel in danger.