[Reno89519]

The news is bad, so they are ignoring it. Maybe opt to not poll in hopes that it will change. Consider that over the past 2-3 weeks leading up to the DNC, they quickly, without explanation, dropped their excess Biden lead results. Bet this was to allow No Bump instead of a He was ahead by 20%, Post convention tied.

My guess is that both Trump and Biden have 40-45% locked up by people that will vote by party. They might lose some on this (Biden is at greater risk because of move to kill 2nd amendment, etc.). It is the rest, that 10% of independents who are at stake. Biden and higher taxes, open borders, and burn, loot, and murder OR Trump and America First, law & order?

Do what they might, I have to think that Trump offers people more. Thus, polls that might confirm this, will be ignored, even untaken.

[Mr Ramsbotham]

My guess is that both Trump and Biden have 40-45% locked up by people that will vote by party. They might lose some on this (Biden is at greater risk because of move to kill 2nd amendment, etc.). It is the rest, that 10% of independents who are at stake. Biden and higher taxes, open borders, and burn, loot, and murder OR Trump and America First, law & order?

I think they'll get a small percentage of non-diehard Democrats, an overwhelming majority of Independents, and virtually all of the Republicans who didn't vote for Trump last election because they were suspicious of him. No need to be suspicious now; he's had four years and proven himself.

[Political Junkie Too]

My guess is that both Trump and Biden have 40-45% locked up by people that will vote by party.

The two questions are:

1. How many low-enthusiasm Biden supporters will stay home and not vote?
2. How many of the Biden stay-home non-voters will be displaced by fraudulently returned mail-in ballots?

-PJ