Replies

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Extremely dangerous Laura has the signature of a classic hurricane
on satellite images, with a well-defined eye surrounded by very
deep convection. There is little evidence of shear, and the
upper-level outflow pattern is extremely well defined, while the
cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C.
Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that Laura continued to strengthen during the
evening. Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed
surface winds, the intensity estimate is 130 kt for this advisory.
Since there is now little time remaining for the system over water,
no significant change in intensity is anticipated until the center
crosses the coastline. Laura will weaken rapidly after it begins
to move over land, but destructive winds should spread well inland,
more than 100 miles, along its path. Later in the forecast period,
the ECMWF and U.K. Met. Office global models indicate some
baroclinic re-intensification as the remnants of Laura move off the
U.S. East coast, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

Laura has begun to turn northward as it moves around the western
side of a subtropical high pressure area, and the initial motion is
about 340/13 kt. The track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous advisories. The cyclone should move through a
weakness in the ridge and turn to the northeast over the next day
or two. Then the system should accelerate toward the
east-northeast while embedded in the westerlies. The official
track forecast remains close to both the simple and the corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA.

Laura is a large hurricane, and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.