I realize hurricanes don’t go in a straight path.
Laura still seems to be traveling in a NW direction which if it stayed true, would make landfall below Galveston.
What are the factors that make the experts believe that it will still hit near Pt Arthur?
Laura is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A gradual turn toward
the north-northwest and north are expected within the next 12-18
hours as the hurricane moves around the western portion of a mid-
level ridge that extends from the western Atlantic into the
southeastern United States. This motion will bring the center of
Laura onshore in southwestern Louisiana or extreme eastern Texas
tonight. By Thursday night, Laura is forecast to turn northeastward,
and then east-northeastward on Friday as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical track models are in good
agreement, and little adjustment to the previous NHC forecast track
was required.