Static analysis.
You're assuming the same mindset from the voters as in 2018, that the past four years has changed no world views. Short of a Roy Moore type candidate I suspect an R behind their name is an automatic vote.
What Roy Moore is to Alabama, Kris Kobach is to Kansas. In the 2018 governors race, Kobach lost the six most populous counties by an average of 20 points. He was in a three way race against two Democrats and still lost statewide by 5 points. Regardless of who wins the nomination, Bollier is going to be a tough opponent. She's well funded, ran unopposed so she's had the past couple of months to define herself, and is no fool. If Marshall is the nominee then it's a neck-and-neck race. If it's Kobach then Bollier will be the favorite.