You are right on all counts.
But only fools think this is going to be easy.
“only fools think this is going to be easy.”
The COVID out of China has been massively expensive so far. I’d say trillions.
I would expect that they have had some hand in the rioting.
I’d also expect that they will try some other disruption to effect the election - President Trump is an existential threat to communist Party rule (as is America).
Some have speculated that China did the numbers, analyzed their Intel on Foreign intent, and knows that its wealth, power and influence are likely higher now then they will be for a long time to come. They are looking at many years of relative decline - so they seek to consolidate some strategic goals (like controlling Hong Kong) before their opportunities wither away. That’s dangerous.
Demographics (because of the one child policy) has turned against them. They will be fighting the drag of that tide for 20 years. Their debt is unsustainable, and a Lehman Brothers moment is likely nearing.
US actions are all teed up to drop tariffs on the other half of China’s exports to the US, crushing the electronics industry in the Pearl River Delta. Likewise the wheels are already in motion to end the convertibility of the Hong Kong Dollar. Combined, those actions will starve them of hard currency for the oil, food and minerals they need to import. Those hard blows will likely hit in the first few quarters after President Trump’s re-election, and deplete their foreign currency reserves before that second term is up (maybe much sooner).
Everyone (except the Party elites) are going to have to tighten their belts, and lower their sights for several years.
And that is kind of a best case, where everything remains managed (a controlled landing), and nothing breaks in a crash - like the currency, stocks, banks, real estate, business bankruptcies, or unemployment. One crash could set off others.
Things are economically already much worse than the young adults have ever seen, having grown up in 25 years of continuous boom times, but their risks have grown greater still, with International supply chains starting to stampede out of China, big crop failures from the flooding, and COVID.
So they are facing much greater pressure than most have ever known - they could take desperate actions.