Biden holds early edge in ABC News’ Electoral College race ratings: ANALYSIS

ABC News ^ | July 24, 2020 | Rick Klein

[John W]

Surprised ABC would have Slow Joe only this far over the needed electoral votes.

[Cronos]

fake news. Trump will win in a landslide

[billyboy15]

From the 1984 Presidential election.

The Harris Survey

For Release: Monday AM, July 11th, 1983 1983 #55
ISSN 0273-1037
EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW CLOSE 1984 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

By Louis Harris
As the 1984 presidential race continues to unfold, it is becoming more and
more likely that the basic pattern of that election will remain unchanged. If Ronald
Reagan chooses to run again, as is increasingly likely, it seems certain that the 1984
presidential election will be close, with neither the President nor his most probable
Democratic opponents assured of any solid lead.
If the 1984 election for the White House is a cliff-hanger, this could give the
ultimate edge to candidate Reagan, who is a known and effective campaigner. A lot will
depend on whether the economy continues to improve for the rest of 1983 and into 1984.
But there are other underlying elements at work for 1984. Traditionally important
factors such as a candidate’s personality and the state of the economy could give way
as a result of the new right’s positions on abortion, affirmative action, environmental
controls, and even busing. In addition, the stewardship of the Reagan administration in
foreign policy, especially on the pivotal issue of war and peace, appears to be troublesome
to the American people.
An important underlying factor in the upcoming 1984 election is the Republican
conservatives’ failure to convert their 1980 majorities into a new majority coalition in
American politics. Instead, with the return of groups such as blacks, Hispanics, union
members, white Catholics and big-city voters to the Democratic fold, plus significant
defections to the Democrats of women, political moderates and elderly voters, the trend
of 1984’s politics now seems to be far more Democratic than Republican.
Thus, Ronald Reagan, who now holds slight margins over both Democratic front-
runners — former Vice President Walter Mondale and Senator John Glenn — seems far less
to be leading an ideological crusade that will reshape American politics than to be faced
with a scrambling race for survival in 1984 where he’ll need every break just to squeak
into a second term. The 10 point margin by which Reagan won in 1980 seems to have completely
disappeared, and he has been reduced to running what can best be called a dead-even race.
By 50-46 percent, voters no~ say they would prefer that ?resident Reagan not
run for re-election. This negative vote on his running is better than the wider 55-40
percent negative rating in January, when he was behind his leading Democratic opponents by
roughly 10 points.
But the basic lack of enthusiasm for this President asking for a second term
is quite apparent. Four key specifics were tested in the latest Harris Survey, taken by
telephone between June 7th and 11th among 1,250 adults nationwide:
—When asked if he deserves to be re-elected n,ext year on the basis of his
record on defense spending, a 51-41 percent majority of the voters say he isnot entitlec to
another four years.
—By 54-40 percent, a solid majority of voters does not think he deserves
re-election on the basis of how he has handled the federal budget.
—By 47-45 percent, a plurality does not think the President deserves
re-election based on the way he handled foreign affairs.
(over)

[riverrunner]

Well if you tell a lie long and loud enough you might get some people to believe it.

[CIB-173RDABN]

I am surprised to find Biden is still in the race. I figured he would have been replaced by now.

Perhaps they are waiting until a vice presidential candidate is named. Then they pull the bait and switch.

And no, I have no idea who that will be (although Kamella Harris has had a face lift so perhaps she will be the chosen one)

The Democrats may think a “woman of color” would be the best candidate but I think Americans are not all that happy with Obama, the first black President, and Americans saw the complete meltdown of Hillary when she did not get her way, so a minority woman no longer holds the same respect it may once had. In other words they have maxed out their race and female card.

[nathanbedford]

I had been much heartened in recent days by the 49% approval rating for trump and by the evidence showing that the African-American males could bring Biden's African-American vote down to a point where a Republican victory is likely.

Yesterday, however, The Cook Report published data showing that the right track wrong track formulation is running heavily against trump. It is easy to dismiss this formulation, it is easy to dismiss the Cook report, however, we ought to remember that the Cook report has a high reputation, high enough for Tucker to accept its judgment and spend the lead portion of this program fighting its implications.

Cook report implications: presidents do not win if they are on the wrong end right path wrong path question.

See for yourself:

https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/right-direction-and-wrong-track-numbers-tell-story-election

I do not think the right track wrong track formulation necessarily applies to the very odd culmination of circumstances which we find ourselves in for this election campaign. Even if President trump suffers from this analysis because it does to some degree shape voters behavior, they still have to go into the polling booth and somehow convince themselves that Joe Biden is more effective in fighting the virus, restoring the economy, combating China.

Somehow, it seems that the public broadly favors trump on the virus, a finding so incomprehensible to me that I simply do not know how to respond to it.

[Veggie Todd]

Yes! Please keep reporting that Sleepy is leading so his voters can stay home, they’re not needed.

[Gnome1949]

Total nonsense.

[ScottinVA]

Trump still has a shot at reelection with a few game-changers. Praying that enough voters will see the light.

[ScottinVA]

I’d be interested in knowing what that same poll revealed three months out, vice 15.

[Nifster]

Oh goody. Another fake poll

[John W]

Given the times some of the usual sources for info like Cook don’t allow for what’s been going on since March. Not sure how they’d even factor it in it is so unprecedented.

[Buckeye McFrog]

That result about Trump and the virus is a puzzler for sure. Frankly he was sending mixed messages until recently, when he settled on one that is very unsatisfying to his base.

49% is a very good place to be for an incumbent at this point though. The Democrats would need something pretty dynamic to overcome that, and their candidate is a demented old man who can’t leave his basement.

[nathanbedford]

Correction: I meant to say that the public broadly favors Biden on the virus, which I find incomprehensible.

[ronnie raygun]

Following the Hillary analysis format of 2016 I see

[apillar]

So did Hillary, by a larger margin, actually. Elections aren’t won in July, they are won in October. Most voters don’t even tune in until the first debates. In fact, even if the polls are correct, its not uncommon for voters to “flirt” with one candidate during the summer and then switch in the fall, Carter was beating Reagan in July and Dukakis had a 18 point lead on George H. W. Bush as late as August.

[ncalburt]

Cook is a Hard Core DC Leftist Insider who hates trump.
His own son has stated it .
I am sick hearing this Cook Crap.

[GrandJediMasterYoda]

I’m thinking that as well. Mark Levin pointed out that there is a huge silent majority, you know if someone wears a MAGA hat or says they support Trump the Marxists viciously attack that person verbally and physically, it may even cost the person their job as we have seen with that teacher. So rather than risk that many are keeping quiet. And on top of that people are seeing how insane the Marxists are getting day by day which Biden, Pelosi et al are part of, and we haven’t even gotten into the debates yet. I think Trump and Repubs are going to obliterate the Marxists in Nov.

[Gay State Conservative]

Hey,things are looking good for the President.On 11/1/16 ABC had ILLary with 450 EVs...*SOLID*.

[DoodleDawg]

It’s back to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.