I’m working with a Congressional campaign in VA and we’ve seen no change in the behavior of the Trump campaign.
Arlington and Alexandria will vote their usual 80% democrat. Loudoun and Prince William will vote 60% democrat.
Fairfax will vote 65% democrat. Virginia Beach, at best, is now 50/50 and the Richmond area, once solidly republican is now split, too. There aren't enough rural votes to make up the difference. It's great that Rockingham votes 70 to 75% republican and Lee County votes 80% republican, but there is not enough people in those counties.
It used to be a rule of thumb, if the republican candidate got 40% of the vote in Fairfax, then they could win the state, but that is no longer true.
Any money Trump spends in Virginia is a complete waste.
Fortunately, I just saw a list of 16 states the Trump campaign has reserved TV ad space...Virginia is not on the list - thankfully. But Texas is, which is not a good sign. I tried to find it for your reference, but I could not. It lists PAC purchases for both campaigns, as well as, Trump's campaign. Biden, has not yet, reserved ad space...holding his cards, but the states should not be a surprise.
I googled and the ad stories are from the end of June, but the article I saw was just a few days ago with updated ad spending. Florida is number 1 for obvious reasons with the I4 corridor the main focus of spending, followed by Ohio. There was nothing unexpected - Georgia was up there in spending, but nothing for Virginia.
I wish you well in the congressional campaign you are working on. Hopefully, it is either the 2nd or 7th district, which should flip. I think the 10th is gone for good.
Then next year, the state legislature will gerrymander the state and federal districts to the dems favor. It will be ugly. My current thought is the legislature will carve 3 republican districts and 8 democrat districts. They will dilute some of their safe districts, but it will probably work. Depending on the census, I have seen Virginia is next in line to add a seat to the House - you never know. There is always a few surprises with the census.