Well thought out post. I am leaning in the same direction but I believe it is somewhat closer. I also think there are many things yet to come that are going to have a large impact on the voting.
Agree there are other things coming - one of them - hopefully is indictments, but it needs to be done sooner than later so voters can digest the information. Many voters may not even believe it, so it will take time for the information and the documentation can be thoroughly reviewed by voters - which really means so the news media can spell it out, but I think the media will punt and pretend it is a corrupt prosecution. It’s all out there and some of it has been for years but many people just don’t know about it.