At least at the County level our Sheriffs still show some common sense - basically ignoring magazine limits, masks, and other completely foolish and Constitutionally questionable edicts.
I believe masks can help, but probably not in a statistically significant way. In a thought experiment you can imagine that yes, if you cough or sneeze into a mask it may trap some of the aerosol particles and may therefore reduce the chances of spreading the virus - if you happen to have it, if you happen to be in a contagious phase, and if someone else who hasn't had it happens to be close enough to matter. How often is that likely to happen vs how many people have been coerced into wearing masks?
I have a nice fabric mask a friend made for me because she was so concerned, wanted to do her part. I didn't have the heart to tell her that her masks are just about completely worthless. She chose fabrics based on the fun/pretty/silly patterns on them. She's into sewing so she chose only the best fabrics... If you know anything about quilting/sewing, the best fabrics tend to be "high thread count" - really dense weave. The fabric is, for all intents, impenetrable by normal breathing pressure. When I wear it, my breath leaks around the outside. If I stretch it tight with my hands and inhale/exhale with effort I can force my breath through it. But in reality, I might as well simply have a square of plastic in front of me. I'm not breathing through it at all. It's one redeeming quality is that I can wear it where I'm "required" to wear one and it hides my smile as I breath normally around it...
The more people who are convinced to wear a mask, the more often your rare scenario will happen. I don'l like coersion, but I'm ok if it leads to a backlash. But I would suggest that everyone who can should wear a mask for now. I recommend the bluish disposable masks although that is based on breathability not efficacy. I have no idea how effective they are.