Thank you for your analysis, Larry.
Do you see a Republican House and Senate in 2921?
Not as of today. I have the Senate at 52-48 with GOP losing McSall (AZ) and Gardner (CO) and gaining AL. MI is a tossup. Could be 53-47 again. I don’t see us losing either Collins (ME) or the KS seat. If by a miracle McSally and Gardner hung on and James won, we could be as high as 56-44.
The House as of today: I have about 5 pretty sure flips, plus Van Drew (switch) and Garcia in CA25 having just won election being a hold. Right now we’d flip UT4, OK5, a NJ seat, probably a NY seat, and SC1. We would need a good 13 more on top of that. I think NM2 is at worst a tossup now, so that would be my 6th seat. Probably another 2 pickups in CA (Young Kim and Valladeo would get their seats back). That means, realistically, we have to win 10 out of the 25 contested seats. Doable. Probably 1-2 in TX, 1 in FL.