Posted on 07/12/2020 10:06:14 AM PDT by robowombat
COVID-19 surge pushes US toward deadly cliff BY REID WILSON - 07/12/20 06:00 AM EDT
The coronavirus is spreading at ever-faster rates in a broad array of states, putting the U.S. on the precipice of an explosion of illness that threatens to overwhelm the nation's health care system.
The painful economic lockdowns imposed in March gave the country time to flatten the epidemiological curve and contain the virus. But that window of opportunity, which came at great economic cost, is quickly slamming shut. Health experts say all signs point to a deadly summer and fall unless government leaders implement a much more robust national strategy.
The breadth of the spread is staggering. Forty-three states have seen the number of cases confirmed on an average day increase in the last two weeks. The number of patients in hospitals has risen over the same period in 29 states. More than 80 percent of intensive care beds are occupied in Alabama, Arizona and Georgia.
The same models that predicted surges in Phoenix, Houston and Miami now show a new and broader round of cities as the likely next epicenters. The number of confirmed cases is likely to rise substantially in places like Atlanta, Kansas City, Mo., Tulsa, Okla., and Greenville, S.C.
The virus also appears to be traveling north along the I-95 corridor. Cities like Philadelphia and Baltimore, which struggled through earlier peaks of viral transmission, are now seeing early signs of a second wave. Transmissions even appear to be rising in New York City.
On the other side of the country, outbreaks in California have grown to unprecedented proportions. The Golden State is now averaging more than 7,900 new cases a day, substantially more than its seven-day average just two weeks ago.
Public health experts warn that the U.S. has only a fleeting window in which to wrestle the virus back under some form of control. Without a stronger national response, including restrictions on large gatherings and requirements that people wear masks in public, the risk of a second peak could bring new lockdowns and more economic harm, derail the beginning of the new school year and even overwhelm local health systems.
"Our projections show that without immediate actions to significantly reduce travel and social distancing nationwide, this virus will not only threaten our ability to reopen schools in the coming weeks, but our capacity to care for the sickest individuals," said David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia whose models forecast higher case counts.
More than 3.1 million Americans have tested positive for the virus, though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that as many as 25 million people in the U.S. may have contracted it. More than 133,000 people have died, almost twice as many victims as in Brazil, the second-hardest hit country.
Cities that successfully avoided early explosions of cases are now in the crosshairs after the loosening of restrictions in some states and regions that helped avoid what studies have suggested would have been tens of millions of infections.
"I would be lying if I didn't say I was concerned," Kansas City, Mo., Mayor Quintin Lucas said in an interview. "We have looked at the trends out of Texas, Arizona and Florida. Those states kind of reflect the political choices that were made statewide in Missouri, and that does give us concern."
The Kansas City metropolitan area has confirmed more than 10,000 coronavirus cases. The PolicyLab model shows Jackson County, Mo., is likely to experience more than 200 new cases every day by the beginning of August.
Rubin warned that smaller cities are likely to experience significant outbreaks in the coming weeks, potentially straining health systems that are not as prepared to handle a high volume of patients in need of intensive care. College towns like South Bend, Ind., and Tuscaloosa, Ala., are beginning to see case counts rise even with most students gone.
"We're starting to see a mild uptick," said James Mueller, South Bend's mayor. "We're in a much better position now than we were for the first increase or the first peak."
At other levels of government, some who have sought to downplay the severity of the American outbreak have pointed to an increasing number of tests being conducted across the country, which they say will naturally lead to identification of those who have only minor symptoms or asymptomatic cases. But the number of cases is rising faster than would be accounted for by the increase in testing; the share of tests coming back positive is rising in 38 states.
More than a quarter of tests conducted in Arizona are coming back positive, according to state data. More than 15 percent of tests are coming back positive in Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas.
Governors in 23 states have ordered residents to wear masks in public, though President Trump has refused to order a nationwide mask mandate. Trump has instead focused on reopening the economy, insisting that schools operate as normal in the months before he faces voters in November.
Louisiana governor announces mask mandate amid COVID-19 surge Los Angeles County orders closure of garment manufacturer after 300... But public health experts argue action is needed now to avoid a second peak of tsunami-like proportions.
"We never gave communities a real chance at success as we lacked a national strategy around masking and limiting gathering sizes to act as a buffer as places reopened," Rubin and his colleagues Gregory Tasian and Jing Huang wrote.
"So, do we admit that we’ve failed and try to salvage the reopening of our schools in fall by quickly enacting a national approach to pause all reopenings and try to get our country back onto stable footing?” he asked. “It may not be what people want to hear, but the situation is that dire that we need to consider this."
FLOYD-19
We need to be walking around in rubber boots, not masks, the bullschtein is piled so high
Dear Hill and MSM,
Not shutting down again.
Go back to writing glow pieces about BLM.
But we are not shutting down.
So so so sorry.
Yes, most new cases are border and migrant related
Soros propaganda speweed out by the Hill.
Drama. I U. ed’s at &0% is not a normal. How many are covid patients?
Ok Karen, the death rate was over 2,000 per day in early spring.
“The GOAL is HERD IMMUNITY — just like regular flu and the common cold.“
What is the evidence for the existence of what you are calling “herd immunity” for any human coronavirus?
WHAT surge? The FAKE, phony, made up, manipulated data surge?
THAT surge?
Corruption runs rampant in today’s society. The “truth” is getting harder and harder to find.
Example of Herd Immunity.... Various flu seasons have higher impact to younger folks vice older folks who had already developed natural immunity because of getting similar flu years ago — when they were young.
From a random selection of web pages via search
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/seasonal-influenza/prevention-and-control/vaccines/immunity
Let’s not forget the nationwide “surge” was triggered by weeks and weeks of rioting and looting backed by the “progressives” in violation of social distancing mandates.
deaths per number of confirmed cases
You have to measure today’s deaths against cases from 2-3 weeks ago, since it takes 2-3 weeks to die from COVID after once being infected.
2250. The 7 day moving average is back up to 723 now. But for reference, the flu death rate peaks about 1000 a day in a bad flu year. We need to accept the fact of the virus causing some deaths but fewer now that a lot of the vulnerable people in nursing homes have gotten it, and most have gotten over it.
About 10 days between new cases and deaths across the US.
I would love to see all these people in prison. They are still throwing a temper tantrum because they didn’t cheat enough to win last time.
This was exactly what “flattening the curve” was sold asy time for the medical system to prepare.
I had a strange conversation at the state store (PA Liquor Store). They had a sign saying, “Please pay with credit card or debit card....”. I had cash, so I asked if cash was Ok. She said, “yes, we still have some cash. The Wawa (convenience store) across the street is running low, though”. I said, “pardon me???” She said that this cash shortage is coming down straight from Harrisburg. I did a search on this issue, but didn’t find anything. Does anyone know anything about this? Is this just until COVID is over?
high level math:....the more people who get the virus, the less people will get the virus...
Your unsubstantiated statement appears to be wrong:
Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 6.9% during week 26 to 5.5% during week 27, representing the eleventh week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC. The percentage is currently below the epidemic threshold but will likely change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.- https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
And simply citing "death rates" is misleading since it fails to differentiate btwn different fatality rates, which has to do with lethality relative to the infection rates, but one reason for the all-ages general “shutdown” is because the fatality rate is exaggerated by typically citing the case fatality rate (CFR) - which is high since it refers to those who were known or suspected to be infected and died, and overall, those who have tested positive are those who had symptoms, thus were the most likely to die - but as World Meters states[1],
The key point is that the “case fatality rate”, the most commonly discussed measure of the risk of dying What we want to know isn’t the case fatality rate: it’s the infection fatality rate.
The latter refers to those estimated to be infected but not tested as being so, and which by far is the majority, with about 80% of such not having symptoms or recovering without medical care. [2] And as regards (even) New York City - which is an extreme case, WorldMeters stated that of May 1,
the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = Deaths / Cases = 23,430 / 1,694,781 = 1.4% (1.4% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 have a fatal outcome, while 98.6% recover).
However, and even more accurate figure as regards the threat COVID-19 poses is that of the Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) that of deaths per 100,000, and Worldometers stated that
As of May 1, 23,430 people are estimated to have died out of a total population of 8,398,748 in New York City. This corresponds to a 0.28% crude mortality rate to date, or 279 deaths per 100,000 population, or 1 death every 358 people.
Then you have the Mortality Rate by Age, regarding which,
“in New York City up to May 12, only 690 (4.5% of all deaths) occurred in patients under the age of 65 who did not have an underlying medical condition.” While those under 65-year-old had a 0.09% CMR to date.
So far there has been 1 death every 1,166 people under 65 years old (compared to 1 death every 358 people in the general population). And 89% of the times, the person who died had one or more underlying medical conditions.
And as noted, NYC is an outlier, with a far higher rate of infections, much due to population density and the harmful pratice of sending infected persons to nursing homes. And close to half of all COVID-19 deaths have occurred in long-term care facilities, especially elder care facilities which account for over 40% of US deaths. [3] [4]
Which means that the 99.4 percent of the country that does not reside in those facilities is roughly half as likely to die of COVID-19,[8] even to the fatality rate of COVID-19 probably being “0.13 percent for people outside nursing homes and 0.26 percent — identical to the CDC best estimate — when people in nursing homes were included.”[5]
See Does COVID-19 truly warrant a nationwide shutdown? for more.
The second reason for the unprecedented reaction to COVID-19 is that of the Democrat political goal to strangle the economy and thereby obtain the White House and force submission to its many immoral demonic and murderous goals.
Footnotes
It’s not spreading
It’s being tested more
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.