[Nifster]

Everything China is doing looks like they think it’s now or never

[Mariner]

“Everything China is doing looks like they think it’s now or never”

China knows what will happen if they fire on the US Navy at sea.

They won’t do it. Their navy is a source of national pride and martial delusion. They don’t want to see it burning on CNN.

They’ll harass shipping and air routes instead, and make outlandish threats.

[Zhang Fei]

[Everything China is doing looks like they think it’s now or never]

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Not China. Xi Jinping. China has forever. Xi Jinping, not so much. Chinese policymakers are very short-term in their outlook. The problem is that while an American president is guaranteed 4 years, a Chinese leader can be turfed at any time, and spends all his waking hours guarding against coups, mutinies or more subtle efforts to erode his authority.

Don’t think they occur? It happened even under Mao, who was the closest thing to a living god that China has had since the Communist dynasty won power in 1949. Deng Xiaoping, Peng Dehuai and a coterie of other bigwigs gradually eased Mao aside by removing his powers one after another. Mao struck back by initiating the Cultural Revolution. Peng was starved to death by Mao. Deng ran to the south where he was shielded by Ye Jianying from assassination. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ye_Jianying#Life Some of the rest were hounded to their deaths.

Xi needs to act now, while his mind is still vigorous enough to simultaneously prosecute a war while fending off his internal rivals. The next dozen or so years are his only chance at transcending Mao to elevate his name to the level of China’s all-time great rulers.