I like to use the example
If you don’t put in 30, chances are you are not going to get ‘a lot’ of stars on your uniform.
And even then, very few are promoted to the 4 star rank.
O6 start happening in the mid 20 year range. Lots of senior O6 are bounced at 26 years in, and the continuation boards happen every year. Unless you are a flag officer or an integrated mustang, or prior enlisted OCS grad you are not getting past 30 years. And mandatory retirement is at 62.
I think the NYT had a swing and a miss moment and generally speaking civilian journalists (and I use the term journalist loosely), screw up military related articles routinely.