I think the important thing is Trump’s leadership and crisis management. It has been exemplary, in my opinion. The base of voters on both sides will agree or disagree. The big question is how that 1/3 in the middle sees his crisis management. That will determine the outcome.
GOP won both elections last week, one seat that was formerly held by a Democrat. If voters in both districts thought that President Trump was doing a poor job in handling the coronavirus, they would had voted for the Democrat.