[absalom01]

Well, with the earlier serology out of NYC, which showed 15-20% had contracted it, which lined up with the LA county figures, one might have hoped that the IFR would be around .5%

Early days yet, but it’s not currently looking good for the ‘herd immunity” camp.

[MinorityRepublican]

I think the shutdowns are only worth it if we get vaccine in a couple of months. Otherwise, it was a mistake to shut down the country even if the casualties were going to be horrendous. I think it would be closer to 500,000 dead Americans rather than over 2 million according to worse case scenario by Imperial College in England.

[palmer]

You need to consider who has contracted it so far. In Mass it is in every nursing home, 25% of patients in one high quality assisted living I know about and 25% of all staff and patients in nursing homes as a whole. There are elderly positive people with no symptoms (they tested everyone). The low hanging fruit has been picked.

There will be more hot spots (e.g. meat plants) and then nursing homes that haven't been hit yet. But in general I think we are peak fatality rate now and it will drop from here.