Posted on 05/11/2020 9:54:47 AM PDT by street_lawyer
Inherent limitations of the tests we currently have make it unlikely that applying testing to the entire population is going to be very useful.
(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...
Does anyone really believe that it is possible to test 350 million or more people? Also the test that determines if a person is infected is a moment in time. As soon as the person walks out of the examination room the person can be infected with the COVID. The only time testing and contact tracing can be effective is when very few people are known to be infected. Beyond this the only cure is herd immunity.
The article goes on explaining how existing testing is not reliable. A lot of ink is devoted to explaining exactly why the tests are inadequate. But if the testing is too late, what different does it make if they are inaccurate. The horses have broken out of the corral and people are on foot running after them to test them. That’s pretty much what is happening now.
We are corralled while the virus is slowing finding opportunistic hosts. Eventually someone is going to open the corral gate and let everyone out, or someone is going to crash the gate and there will be a stampede. It’s only a matter of time. Eventually everyone who can be infected will be infected. The lockdown is just moving the herd date out many months as the economy goes into cardiac arrest.
Testing, in and of itself, does noting to control the spread or severity of the COVID-19 Wuhan virus, it merely takes a snapshot of the moment the test was administered.
INTELLIGENT ACTION is the vital ingredient in the mix of strategies to combat and contain this disease. Any possible vaccine is still months away from distribution, no matter how promising the early efforts to produce a practical immunization program may be. Until then, the expedients of social distancing, washing of hands frequently, and normal good hygiene, together with PLENTY of sunshine and fresh air (meaning “no lockdown in your own home”) probably are the best alternatives at the moment.
In theory, the test can be completely effective and wipe out the Wuhan Plague. All that is required is that everyone in the US be tested simultaneously and kept at the test site until the results are known. then anyone testing positive is locked up in mandatory quarantine.
If the Plague is believed to be asymptomatic for a couple of days after exposure, we just have to keep everyone at the test sites for a couple of days and retest them.
Does anyone see a problem with this theory? We should do it immediately, right? /Off SARC
People in the media and politicians who are talking about testing are confusing, possibly on purpose, two different reasons for testing. 1. The traditional reason for testing for something like influenza or strep throat is so that proper treatment can be given. 2. The other reason now trumpeted for testing is to stop the spread of the Plague virus.
Reason number 1 is still completely valid. Reason number 2, with a virus already as widespread as this one, is that it requires the totally unworkable situation of simultaneous testing and quarantine I started out with.
Don’t be fooled.
I think I just said what you said, only you said it more succintly.
the expedients of social distancing, washing of hands frequently, and normal good hygiene, together with PLENTY of sunshine and fresh air (meaning “no lockdown in your own home”) probably are the best alternatives at the moment.
Ditto
In theory, the test can be completely effective and wipe out the Wuhan Plague. All that is required is that everyone in the US be tested simultaneously and kept at the test site until the results are known. then anyone testing positive is locked up in mandatory quarantine.
Exactly correct!
In theory I am a brilliant attorney, but in reality I’m just Street_Lawyer.
The point of testing is not to eradicate the virus but something that may be worse: the fear and irrational reactions that come from the constant advertising of Covid-19. e.g. Alaska shutting down and has had 5 deaths 10% of normal pneumonia deaths. What might be more useful is anti-body test there are at least 5 studies that show the Covid 19 virus already infected 15% of US population and they recovered without fanfare-the implication being antibodies.
We have already tested almost 9 million and with the emergency approval today 5/11 of ABT 2nd test it will be possible to ramp up test 5 million a day. ABT test are highly accurate to 99.9% to 100% see references below.
I know some people do not want to consider any positive news (or cost of shutdown in lives )but OF COURSE it is possible to test the remaining 324 million, it is a simple finite exercise it would take 65-66 days if testing at 5 million, its just simple math. Large scale is very possible e.g Every school child in the US already has to have verified they received a number of vaccines before even entering school and that is done easily. Most docs and hospitials are now at less than 505 capacity due to all but Covid being shut.
Abbott’s Coronavirus Antibody Test Proves Highly Accurate
Researchers found the test correctly returned negative results 99.9% of the time and positive results 100% of the time.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/08/abbotts-coronavirus-antibody-test-proves-highly-ac.aspx?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&yptr=yahoo
“INTELLIGENT ACTION”
You are absolutely correct. The idea that we can test corona virus out of existence is nonsense made up to attack PDJT. Unless you are sick, the only reason I can see to get tested is for tax purposes. If you are feeling well, take reasonable precautions with hygiene, etc, and wait it out.
Patients with symptoms are tested. The number of positives, in one state, for example, is compared to the number of negatives. Some states have shown less than ten percent positives. With mainly patients being tested, we know that no large part of the population is infected in those states. Epidemiologists use the tests for estimates. Testing the whole population would be overly expensive.
Some antibody test efforts showed many false positives, because those tests also detected antibodies from infections caused by other coronaviruses, like colds.
Agreed on best alternatives. We can work and play while avoiding getting infected and spreading the disease. With so much global transportation, business and tourism, we needed to make some temporary and permanent modifications anyway.
I had a habit of lingering small talk with acquaintances in public places but am limiting that to brief, friendly comments. Leaves a better impression anyway.
There’s only a need for one of my family to go to a store with a shopping list. We can look online in advance to browse. It’s really nice to make that chore quicker and easier. Allows more time for exercise or other chores in or near the house.
Wearing a mask and washing hands is no problem. Those who wear glasses can wear masks that fit more snugly around the bridge of the nose. Those who have dry hands can use unscented hand cream or wear gloves in stores. Some of the gloves are nearly transparent.
I see the testing as kind of pointless. Yes, a large percent of the population has COVID but the vast majority of them have no symptoms and are not at risk of hospitalization. So if I’m experiencing no symptoms, but test positive what should I do? Other than stay away from nursing homes and people who are high risk what should I do. I know the tyrants in the Governor’s mansions would have me quarantined or go about like my business shunned like a leper...perhaps ringing a little bell warning I’m unclean.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.